The spreads got me last week. Vegas has really settled in on this season and they are well on the way to recovering all of their early seasons misfortune. I finished 11 - 9 ATS but 17 - 3 on the winners straight up. Some of the games were last minute spread losers such as Maryland scoring with less than a minute versus FSU, NC ST late versus Clemson. Also there were some close calls such as Boise St 1/2 point short and Middle Tenn St 1 1/2 short. That was the difference in a 15 - 5 instead of 11 - 9. YTD my record is 59 - 36 ATS which is 62% winners which is not bad for ol' amateur like me.
Well here we go with this weeks picks.
1. Notre Dame over USC by 6 1/2 -- Too many things going right for the Irish and wrong for the Trojans to ignore this one. Barley is out and a redshirt freshman is in for USC going against one of the best defenses in the country.
2. CLEMSON over So. Carolina by 3 1/2 -- This hurts my heart to pick against the SEC, but at home with the offensive weapons they have and the Gamecocks defense hurting no choice.
3. La Monroe over FLA INTL by 5 1/2 -- Too much offense versus an average Sun Belt defense.
4. Stanford over UCLA by 1/2 -- Before last week I would have taken the Bruins and there offense. Standford proved that a solid, disciplined defense can stop those wide out spread offenses by keeping them contained where they can make the mistakes. This game means too much to Standford and not enough to UCLA for a trip to the PAC 12 championship game.
5. SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 4 1/2 -- This was a tough one to call but the Spartans have been solid ATS this year and they are winning as well. I am taking them since the Bulldogs have to travel to Calif.
6. Rutgers getting 1 1/2 from PITT -- Two reasons to pick the Scarlett Knights, 1) they are better and play consistent football and need to position themselves for a BCS Bowl Bid atop the Big East and 2) they just got accepted into the BIG 10. Both of theses are motivators that should easily overcome any home field advantage that PITT might get early in the game.
7. MEMPHIS over So. Miss by 4 1/2 -- It is hard to believe that Memphis is actually better than another team in the Conf. USA but So. Miss is really bad at 0 - 11 but on the road they are going to finish 0 - 12.
8. BAYLOR over Texas Tech by 2 1/2 -- Tuberville's tirade on the sideline two weeks ago will still have an effect on the team overall and Baylor's big win at home last week will carry over into this week. Look for the Bears to play well at home and win this one by 7+.
9. FSU over Fla by 5 1/2 -- The Gator offense is struggling and the Seminole defense is not. This will make for a long day for Muschamp and Driskel leading to a rather low scoring but one sided win for Jimbo.
10. PURDUE over Indiana by 5 1/2 -- Purdue has played well this season not by winning but in covering the spread. Let's keep the ball rolling.
10 Others to Consider
EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 4 1/2
West Virginia over IOWA ST by 1/2
ARIZONA over Arizona St by 2 1/2
Michigan getting 4 1/2 from OHIO ST
Tulsa over SMU by 4 1/2
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO getting 1 1/2 from Texas St
PENN ST over Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Rice getting 1 1/2 from UTEP
Unlv over HAWAII by 6 1/2
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 2 1/2
The Big Boy Games
TEXAS over Tcu by 8 1/2
ARKANSAS getting 12 1/2 from Lsu
Wash over WASH ST by 10 1/2
CINN over So. Fla by 12 1/2
Virginia getting 10 1/2 from VIR TECH
Mich St over MINNESOTA by 7 1/2
Okla St getting 8 1/2 from OKLA
ALA over Auburn by 31 1/2
NC ST over Boston College by 13 1/2
LOUISVILLE over UConn 12 1/2
Good luck and may the spread be with you.
Coach
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
Can You Handle the Truth? There will be BCS Chaos
Bammers so you are really excited about the inevitable return trip to the BCS Championship game. Well chaos is about to reach right up and bite you on the butt. Chew on this scenario,
Notre Dame gets beat (bad) by a weak USC team. In fact they get embarrassed with all of the hype about preparing for the championship game that the media really wants. In fact they want it so bad they are almost proclaiming them the eventual winner. They drop to number 4 or 5 in the ranking.
Florida loses to FSU in a close one, probably 17 - 10 or 17 - 13 and drops to number 8.
Clemson beats So. Carolina and finishes at number 7.
Alabama beats Auburn handily but loses to Georgia and drops to number 6.
Kansas State loses to Texas and drops somewhere between 10 and 12.
Oregon loses to Oregon State drops to number 9.
UCLA beats Stanford then loses the Pac 12 Championship game to Stanford but it is too late for either team take up more than one BCS game for the PAC 12.
Oklahoma wins out over Ok State and TCU.
LSU beats Arkansas and sits back to watch it all unfold. Do you remember 2007? The dominoes fell just right in the final two weeks to put the Fightin Tigers in the game which they won.
So here it, LSU vs Ga in Miami. The media goes crazy with another all SEC championship game, Notre Dame goes to the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson, FSU versus Rutgers in the Orange, Stanford versus Nebraska in the Rose, Oklahoma versus Oregon in the Fiesta.
Now how is that for madness/chaos?
Notre Dame gets beat (bad) by a weak USC team. In fact they get embarrassed with all of the hype about preparing for the championship game that the media really wants. In fact they want it so bad they are almost proclaiming them the eventual winner. They drop to number 4 or 5 in the ranking.
Florida loses to FSU in a close one, probably 17 - 10 or 17 - 13 and drops to number 8.
Clemson beats So. Carolina and finishes at number 7.
Alabama beats Auburn handily but loses to Georgia and drops to number 6.
Kansas State loses to Texas and drops somewhere between 10 and 12.
Oregon loses to Oregon State drops to number 9.
UCLA beats Stanford then loses the Pac 12 Championship game to Stanford but it is too late for either team take up more than one BCS game for the PAC 12.
Oklahoma wins out over Ok State and TCU.
LSU beats Arkansas and sits back to watch it all unfold. Do you remember 2007? The dominoes fell just right in the final two weeks to put the Fightin Tigers in the game which they won.
So here it, LSU vs Ga in Miami. The media goes crazy with another all SEC championship game, Notre Dame goes to the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson, FSU versus Rutgers in the Orange, Stanford versus Nebraska in the Rose, Oklahoma versus Oregon in the Fiesta.
Now how is that for madness/chaos?
Sunday, November 18, 2012
LSU Football
LSU - 41 and Ole Miss - 35
Does the final score tell the whole story? I don't think so because when playing in the SEC there is always more to the game than just the total number of points. Don't get me wrong, winning the game by scoring more points than your opponent is the ultimate judgement on how you played the game. It is always better to play poorly and win the game than play very well and lose. An example of the latter is the Alabama game where LSU outplayed the Tide the entire second half and took a lead into the final minutes only to have Bama out play them for the win.
Last night Ole Miss played even to actually a little better than LSU, but the playmakers saved the day for the Tigers. Now here is what may have caused this game to closer than many thought, The Tigers played a 5 game stretch against ranked SEC opponents. Four of those games are against teams still in the Top 10 ( Florida, So. Carolina, Texas A & M, Alabama) and Miss. St is still in the Top 25. We were due for a little let down. Then add on top of that Ole Miss is scrambling to make a bowl game, they are heated rivals with the Tigers, and Hugh Freeze is a good coach. Can you say upset special?
Any way you slice it, the Tigers are playing a winning brand of football and I don't see anything in the near term changing that. This senior class is the third in a row that has won at least 50 games in their career at LSU. The group of redshirt sophomores through true freshman will have a solid chance to win 57 - 60 games over their 5 years which would extend the streak to 6 consecutive senior classes to win 50+ games.
I like what I see in the program this can be credited to Les Miles and his relationship with the players. This was never more evidenced than in his emotional press conference after the game on senior day last night. The players know he is their for them and they win for him. They also recruit for him and this year's upcoming class of recruits is one of his best. To watch the rant and witness the passion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRXP5Bf8KFs
It is a great time to be a Tiger!
Does the final score tell the whole story? I don't think so because when playing in the SEC there is always more to the game than just the total number of points. Don't get me wrong, winning the game by scoring more points than your opponent is the ultimate judgement on how you played the game. It is always better to play poorly and win the game than play very well and lose. An example of the latter is the Alabama game where LSU outplayed the Tide the entire second half and took a lead into the final minutes only to have Bama out play them for the win.
Last night Ole Miss played even to actually a little better than LSU, but the playmakers saved the day for the Tigers. Now here is what may have caused this game to closer than many thought, The Tigers played a 5 game stretch against ranked SEC opponents. Four of those games are against teams still in the Top 10 ( Florida, So. Carolina, Texas A & M, Alabama) and Miss. St is still in the Top 25. We were due for a little let down. Then add on top of that Ole Miss is scrambling to make a bowl game, they are heated rivals with the Tigers, and Hugh Freeze is a good coach. Can you say upset special?
Any way you slice it, the Tigers are playing a winning brand of football and I don't see anything in the near term changing that. This senior class is the third in a row that has won at least 50 games in their career at LSU. The group of redshirt sophomores through true freshman will have a solid chance to win 57 - 60 games over their 5 years which would extend the streak to 6 consecutive senior classes to win 50+ games.
I like what I see in the program this can be credited to Les Miles and his relationship with the players. This was never more evidenced than in his emotional press conference after the game on senior day last night. The players know he is their for them and they win for him. They also recruit for him and this year's upcoming class of recruits is one of his best. To watch the rant and witness the passion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRXP5Bf8KFs
It is a great time to be a Tiger!
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Coach's Week 12 Locks
I took it on the chin last week finishing 7 - 3 on the top 10 but going 2 - 8 on the next 10 to finish 9 - 11 overall. This brings my overall record ATS for the season to 48 - 27 for a 64% winning margin. This weeks games look to be every bit as challenging and the simple fact that we are playing in November and with rivalry games coming up, anything can happen. So here we go;
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
6) Northwestern getting 6 1/2 from MICHIGAN ST - The Wildcats will cover the spread but probably not win the game. In fact the Spartans typically do not cover. This one will come down to the last drive and a field goal. Take the points.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
1) Kansas St over BAYLOR by 11 1/2 - KSU has been amazing against the spread and Collin Klein is back to full strength health wise. Look for a Bill Synder team to stay focused on the task at hand to secure victory.
2) CLEMSON over No. Car. St by 17 1/2 - Clemson is clicking on all cylinders, playing at home, and still trying to reach a BCS bowl therefore needing all of the style points they can muster/
3) Wash. over COLORADO by 20 1/2 - This can be a risky one as none of knows when Colorado may actually show up and play a game. But until that happens I am going with the trend.
4) Okla over WVU by 10 1/2 - Same tune second verse, until WVU shows they are going to play some defense, I don't see any reason to think any number of points to too many for the opponent to overcome.
5) Ark St over TROY by 3 1/2 - Did you see that game last week versus La Monroe. WOW now that is a creative, explosive offense. Troy will not be able to match them scoring. Malzahn can match play calling with anyone and should not have any trouble here.
7) MIAMI over So. Fla by 6 1/2 - The Hurricanes missed a cover last week by 1. Should not have the problem this week with a very inept offense of USF.
8) BOISE ST over Col St by 28 1/2 - Boise has hit it's stride offensively and the defense has turned it up a notch. they are not the Broncos of yesteryear but they are good enough to run the table against the Mountain West.
9) UCLA getting 3 1/2 from So. Cal - This is strictly a momentum play. UCLA in on the upswing from low expectations and USC is trending down from the mountain top. Mora has the process working and they are currently the second highest scoring team in the PAC 12.
10) LSU over Ole Miss by 19 1/2 - Call me a homer but Mettenberger and the play selection have finally found equilibrium. The porous defense from the Rebels will be no match for the athletes on the Tiger sideline. This is a rivalry game, one that will get out of hand early and often.
11) Mid Tenn St over SO ALA by 9 1/2 - The Blue Raiders have very quietly made their way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference while So. Ala. is working to survive their first full year in Div.I football. MTSU has a very good run game and strong defense with too many athletes.
12) CINCINNATI over Rutgers by 6 1/2 - The Scarlett Knights are overrated versus good offenses and the Bearcats can put some points on the board. Also Cinn is solid at home. If Kent St can put up 42 on Rutgers, so can Cincinnati.
A Few Bonus Picks
1) Smu over RICE by 3 1/2
2) Fsu over MARYLAND by 30 1/2
3) Ohio St getting 2 1/2 from WISCONSIN
4) Utah St over LA TECH by 3 1/2
5) Texas-San Antonio over IDAHO by 5 1/2
6) OKLAHOMA ST over Texas Tech by 10 1/2
7) Kent St getting 2 1/2 from BOWLING GREEN
8) MISS ST over Arkansas by 6 1/2
Well there it is folks, good luck and may the spread be with you.
Coach
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Why your schedule matters.
Is it better to play the toughest part of your schedule early or late in the season? Let's discuss the pros and cons.
Pro - Injuries are a part of the game but the early part of the season has put less wear and tear on the players thus putting the team in a better position to weather the storm of tough competition.
Con - If you lose some starters early in the season due to those injuries, your team had better be deep with talent. Also the coaching staff should have a plan to develop young athletes.
Pro - By playing tough competition early, you can fine tune the offensive and defensive timing and strategies for success.
Con - If you are not prepared for the task, you can lose two and be out of the running for a championship.
Pro - It is better to lose one early and gain momentum throughout the season to finish strong leading to either a championship run or a strong recruiting year or an early start on next year.
Con - You could lose your team, but good coaches in good programs don't let this happen.
Bottom line, it is in this writers opinion that it is better to play a tough schedule throughout the season. This will keep the players focused on the task at hand each and every week. The coaches are challenged to develop the game plan to ensure success at every step. I believe that Texas A & M, through the virtue of a very difficult schedule to start the season, was better prepared to compete with Alabama than the inverse. The Tide took a significant beating in the previous week's contest and could not sustain the focus necessary to win the next game. In fact it will take a excellent coaching job by Saban and his staff to prepare them for the contest versus Georgia in Atlanta. The bulldogs are the hottest team in the SEC (outside of LSU) right now.
If your opinion is different or if you have something to add to the topic, please us a comment.
Pro - Injuries are a part of the game but the early part of the season has put less wear and tear on the players thus putting the team in a better position to weather the storm of tough competition.
Con - If you lose some starters early in the season due to those injuries, your team had better be deep with talent. Also the coaching staff should have a plan to develop young athletes.
Pro - By playing tough competition early, you can fine tune the offensive and defensive timing and strategies for success.
Con - If you are not prepared for the task, you can lose two and be out of the running for a championship.
Pro - It is better to lose one early and gain momentum throughout the season to finish strong leading to either a championship run or a strong recruiting year or an early start on next year.
Con - You could lose your team, but good coaches in good programs don't let this happen.
Bottom line, it is in this writers opinion that it is better to play a tough schedule throughout the season. This will keep the players focused on the task at hand each and every week. The coaches are challenged to develop the game plan to ensure success at every step. I believe that Texas A & M, through the virtue of a very difficult schedule to start the season, was better prepared to compete with Alabama than the inverse. The Tide took a significant beating in the previous week's contest and could not sustain the focus necessary to win the next game. In fact it will take a excellent coaching job by Saban and his staff to prepare them for the contest versus Georgia in Atlanta. The bulldogs are the hottest team in the SEC (outside of LSU) right now.
If your opinion is different or if you have something to add to the topic, please us a comment.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Thoughts on the Miss St game
If LSU plays like they did against Alabama then this game won't be close. In fact, if LSU plays like they did against Florida this game still won't be that close. Mississippi State has probably the most over inflated 7-2 record of any team out there. I know that LSU has played some easy opponents this year as well but they have also stood toe to toe with the good opponents. Mississippi State just got steam rolled by Alabama and Texas A&M. LSU really just needs to maintain focus and execute this week. Don't look forward and don't look back on the schedule. If LSU does that then they win easily.
LSU 35 - Miss St 10
LSU 35 - Miss St 10
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Coach's Locks for Week 11
Well I am ready to beat the spread this week with 10 outstanding picks that are sure to make everyone happy. Just to recap last weekend, I finished 13 - 7 on the top twenty games and 31 - 19 on the best 50 games. I was really let down by some very lethargic performances (Florida, NC St, Ole Miss, and TTU) but such is the life of those of us following college football played by 19 - 22 year old young men. Oh well, here we go with renewed enthusiasm for a new slate of contests.
Home Team in CAPS
1. Miami getting 1/2 from VIRGINIA
Al Golden has them rolling along with an eye on the ACC Championship game, making a bowl game, the defense is playing much better and the offense has stopped turning it over.
2. Pitt over UCONN by 3 1/2
Tino Sunseri is on fire. Over the last 7 games he has completed over 70% of his passes with only 1 int. Ray Graham appears to be back at 100% based on his game against Notre Dame. UConn doesn't score much and is winless in the Big East.
3. ARKANSAS ST over La. Monroe by 6 1/2
Colton Browning (QB for La. Monroe) is injured and is questionable for the game on Thursday night. Without this playmaker on offense, I don't think the Warhawks can keep up with Gus Malzahn's high flying scoring machine.
4. Minnesota over ILLINOIS by 3 1/2
There is a certain attitude within the Golden Gopher program that is that of a winner. The Illini do not have that same winning approach. I believe this will be a close game with the visiting team taking the game by 7.
5. Oregon over CAL by 27 1/2
I know that 27 1/2 is a lot of points and Oregon is due for a let down and Cal has played them tough over the last several years. But the CAL team is really beat up with injuries, their coach is on the hot seat, and they are all but eliminated from bowl invitation possibilities. Then throw on top of that the fact that Oregon is looking for style points and they are just flat out good, I think they will cover.
6. CLEMSON over Maryland by 30 1/2
Well if you think 27 1/2 is a lot to cover this will might scare you a little. But don't worry too much, I just heard that Maryland is starting the hot-dog vendor at QB this week and the woeful performance last week of the freshman middle linebacker. They only scored 13 against a weak Georgia Tech defense. The tiger defense is much better than GT. We all know that Clemson will run it up at home on anybody.
7. Marshall over UAB by 2 1/2
This is one of those gotta feeling games. Marshall has been high flying of late and UAB just had some measure of success over So. Miss coming from behind to win 26 - 19. So the pressure is off to win a conference game and I believe they will return to the losing ways.
8. SMU over So. Miss by 12 1/2
SMU averages 35 ppg on offense while So. Miss gives up 40 ppg. So. Miss scores 20 ppg and SMU gives up 25. Those numbers tell me the spread will be covered. Then add in the fact that SMU is 4 - 1 ATS at home and So Miss is 1 - 3 ATS on the road, this is one of my locks.
9. Fresno St over NEVADA by 2 1/2
Both teams are scoring a lot of points and Fresno St is leading the conference so momentum is on their side. They are 4-1 ATS on the road while Nevada is 0 -4 ATS at home. Look for a 10+ point win for Fresno.
10. NEBRASKA over Penn St. by 6 1/2
Taylor Martinez is playing much better and taking care of the ball. The Cornhuskers play very good pass defense that will slow down the Penn St offense significantly. Penn St does not run the ball very well at all and this could leave their defense on the field too much making this a 4th quarter game where Nebraska wins by two TD's.
Other games I like
Tulane over MEMPHIS by 1 1/2
LSU over Miss St by 13 1/2
NO. CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 9 1/2
La. Tech over TEXAS ST by 19 1/2
San Jose St over NEW MEXICO ST by 22 1/2
OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 20 1/2
ucla over WASH ST by 14 1/2
ALABAMA over Texas A & M by 13 1/2
NEW MEXICO getting 1/2 from Wyoming
So Alabama getting 9 1/2 from NORTH TEXAS
Look for updates later this week as I get more research done.
Good luck and may the spread be with you,
Coach Bourque
Home Team in CAPS
1. Miami getting 1/2 from VIRGINIA
Al Golden has them rolling along with an eye on the ACC Championship game, making a bowl game, the defense is playing much better and the offense has stopped turning it over.
2. Pitt over UCONN by 3 1/2
Tino Sunseri is on fire. Over the last 7 games he has completed over 70% of his passes with only 1 int. Ray Graham appears to be back at 100% based on his game against Notre Dame. UConn doesn't score much and is winless in the Big East.
3. ARKANSAS ST over La. Monroe by 6 1/2
Colton Browning (QB for La. Monroe) is injured and is questionable for the game on Thursday night. Without this playmaker on offense, I don't think the Warhawks can keep up with Gus Malzahn's high flying scoring machine.
4. Minnesota over ILLINOIS by 3 1/2
There is a certain attitude within the Golden Gopher program that is that of a winner. The Illini do not have that same winning approach. I believe this will be a close game with the visiting team taking the game by 7.
5. Oregon over CAL by 27 1/2
I know that 27 1/2 is a lot of points and Oregon is due for a let down and Cal has played them tough over the last several years. But the CAL team is really beat up with injuries, their coach is on the hot seat, and they are all but eliminated from bowl invitation possibilities. Then throw on top of that the fact that Oregon is looking for style points and they are just flat out good, I think they will cover.
6. CLEMSON over Maryland by 30 1/2
Well if you think 27 1/2 is a lot to cover this will might scare you a little. But don't worry too much, I just heard that Maryland is starting the hot-dog vendor at QB this week and the woeful performance last week of the freshman middle linebacker. They only scored 13 against a weak Georgia Tech defense. The tiger defense is much better than GT. We all know that Clemson will run it up at home on anybody.
7. Marshall over UAB by 2 1/2
This is one of those gotta feeling games. Marshall has been high flying of late and UAB just had some measure of success over So. Miss coming from behind to win 26 - 19. So the pressure is off to win a conference game and I believe they will return to the losing ways.
8. SMU over So. Miss by 12 1/2
SMU averages 35 ppg on offense while So. Miss gives up 40 ppg. So. Miss scores 20 ppg and SMU gives up 25. Those numbers tell me the spread will be covered. Then add in the fact that SMU is 4 - 1 ATS at home and So Miss is 1 - 3 ATS on the road, this is one of my locks.
9. Fresno St over NEVADA by 2 1/2
Both teams are scoring a lot of points and Fresno St is leading the conference so momentum is on their side. They are 4-1 ATS on the road while Nevada is 0 -4 ATS at home. Look for a 10+ point win for Fresno.
10. NEBRASKA over Penn St. by 6 1/2
Taylor Martinez is playing much better and taking care of the ball. The Cornhuskers play very good pass defense that will slow down the Penn St offense significantly. Penn St does not run the ball very well at all and this could leave their defense on the field too much making this a 4th quarter game where Nebraska wins by two TD's.
Other games I like
Tulane over MEMPHIS by 1 1/2
LSU over Miss St by 13 1/2
NO. CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 9 1/2
La. Tech over TEXAS ST by 19 1/2
San Jose St over NEW MEXICO ST by 22 1/2
OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 20 1/2
ucla over WASH ST by 14 1/2
ALABAMA over Texas A & M by 13 1/2
NEW MEXICO getting 1/2 from Wyoming
So Alabama getting 9 1/2 from NORTH TEXAS
Look for updates later this week as I get more research done.
Good luck and may the spread be with you,
Coach Bourque
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