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Football Pick'em

Last week was not our best. Vegas is definitely homing in on the spreads making it tough on the crack staff of prognosticators working with coach. Last week's results were a profitable 8 - 7 but we broke even on the top ten at 5 - 5. Season to date results are 28 - 17 or 62%.

Let's get to the meat for this week. Here are week 4's Coach's Locks;

HOME TEAM

1.    BAYLOR by 28.5 over UL Monroe

2.    GA TECH by 5.5 over No. Carolina

3.    Kansas St getting 4.5 from TEXAS

4.    Wyoming by 3.5 over AIR FORCE

5.    Missouri by 3.5 over INDIANA

6.    Rice getting 2.5 from HOUSTON

7.    NOTRE DAME by 6.5 over Michigan State

8.    Arkansas getting 1.5 from RUTGERS

9.    Clemson by 13.5 over NO CAROLINA STATE

10.  LSU by 17.5 over Auburn

For those with a riskier appetite, try these;

11.  VIRGINIA TECH by 9.5 over Marshall

12.  FLORIDA ATL getting 4.5 from Middle Tenn

13.  LOUISVILLE by 41.5 over Florida Intl

My upset specials this week are;

14.  Colorado St getting 39.5 from ALABAMA ( Bama still wins)

15.  Idaho getting 31.5 from WASH STATE (take the points)

Well there they are, my best research says this is gonna be a good week so play heavy and go for the gold. Good luck and my the spread be with you.

Coach

What did we learn Week 3

Johnny Football, you can love him or hate him, he is a dynamic player that will lead his team to wins. The only real problem is the offense can not keep up with the woefully inadequate defense at Texas A & M. A broadcaster on the Rice game proclaimed that TAMU was an SEC caliber defense, not even close. I will grant you that Alabama is good but do we really know. They themselves left a lot of plays on the field. Never the less, both teams will be in the hunt for the chance to represent the SEC West division in Atlanta.

Here we go with some observations;

1.   Coaches hot seat list;

          Bo Pelini was hired to resurrect the "Black Shirts" at Nebraska - failed so far.

          Dan Mullen is losing the recruiting battle to in-state rival Ole Miss. MSU will be looking soon.

          Lane Kiffen will only survive until USC can restock the shelves from probation (2yr max)

          Mack Brown - if he were a roast, you'd stick a fork in him at Texas.

2.    Nick Saban's next job, Texas! Can you imagine how he could lock up the talent rich state and build another dynasty.

3.    Senior QB's make all of the difference in an offense's production. Just look around the programs that are lighting up the scoreboard and in most of them there is a seasoned veteran.

4.    Auburn is better but there is night and day difference between Auburn and any of the top tier teams in the SEC. LSU, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A & M all have strong enough defenses and balanced offenses that do not need to scheme you to be successful.

5.    Want to talk about a fast paced offense, Arizona St ran 52 plays in the first half Saturday night. I think they finished near 100. But because of this helter-skelter approach they often times look undisciplined and random. It must have worked, they won the game over Wisconsin.

Football Pick'em

Coach got surprised on a few games last week; Cincinnati, Texas, Florida and South Carolina. Florida was a real let down losing to an ACC team but when you turn the ball over 6 times you just don't score points. Texas is a disaster and now Cincy is without their QB and probably won't show up on my radar again this year.

The totals for last week was a respectable 9 - 6 ATS. I was 8 - 2 on the top ten but only 1 - 4 on the streches and upsets. This brings my two week season total to 20 - 10. Sounds profitable to me.

HOME TEAMS IN BOLD

Now for this weeks locks.

1.   Bowling Green getting 2.5 from INDIANA

2.   UCLA getting 4.5 from NEBRASKA

3.   OKLAHOMA by 24.5 over Tulsa

4.   Louisville by 13.5 over KENTUCKY

5.   FLORIDA STATE by 31.5 over Nevada

6.   Northern Illinios by 27.5 over IDAHO

7.   PENN STATE by 4.5 over Central Florida

8.   MIDDLE TENN by 6.5 over Memphis

9.   Wisconsin getting 5.5 from ARIZONA ST

10. Ball State by 2.5 over NORTH TEXAS

A little bit riskier plays are;

11. AUBURN by 6.5 over Miss State

12. Maryland by 7.5 over CONNECTICUT

13. SOUTH FLORIDA by 12.5 over Florida Atlantic

The upset specials are not really upsets but these two games will not cover the spread.

14. Notre Dame by 20.5 over PURDUE (TAKE THE POINTS)

15. LSU by 36.5 over Kent St ( TAKE THE POINTS)

Well folks there they are. May the spread be with you.

Coach

What Did We Learn in Week 2

Sorry sports fans and coach followers, I am running a day late with some updates due to coach being a little under the weather. This is gonna be a brief one so here we go.

1.   The 4M's are really lighting up the scoreboard; Manziel, McCarron (giving the benefit of the doubt), Mettenberger, and Murray. Who says the SEC doesn't play offense and quarterback.

2.   A few weeks down the line the Ga vs LSU shootout could be really entertaining, maybe even better than this weekend's ALA vs TAMU game. Right now I give LSU a slight advantage because of John Chavis on the LSU defense.

3.   Did anyone really think Notre Dame would be real this year?

4.   Add Mack Brown to the coaches hot seat. Stick a fork in him.

5.   The talking heads gave Miami way too much credit in the win over Florida (really a loss by Fla) in proclaiming they are real and the ACC can compete.

6.   Is it just me or are there a lot of points being scored early in the season. Usually the defenses are ahead of the offenses and rule the day. Not so right now so I can only imagine what weeks 7 - 14 will look like for games.

7.   Ball State is a rock solid spread covering machine. Go with it.


See you next week on Tuesday for another edition of "What Did We Learn".

Coach

Why college polls need rules and regulations. Or better yet, do away with them completely.

This is an example of a real AP Poll ballot from @DougLesmerises: Link: http://t.co/K94YxTF53p Pic: pic.twitter.com/r0toVDWAG3
— The SEC Logo (@SEC_Logo) September 9, 2013

The above is a tweet I came across via The SEC Logo (@SEC_Logo).  Yes, that is an actual vote cast by an AP member for the ranking of college football teams.  I personally have no problem with this ranking, as long as it is viewed from the perspective of who is playing the "best" football as of right now and not a prediction of who will win the BCS title.  I can agree that Clemson has played some really good football the first two weekends.  They beat a Georgia team that looked really good against South Carolina.  Alabama did not look all that impressive against Virginia Tech.  Hell, I would suggest that Alabama be ranked behind Oregon, Georgia, and Louisville if we are basing it purely on quality of football played this season to date.  However, that is my main point. What are these polls actually based on?  In a vast majority of the votes, Alabama is ranked #1 overall.  And rightly so, given it's from the perspective of the reigning champ hasn't been beaten yet.  And therein lies the problem.  Too many people cast votes based on such a wide variety of criteria. With the millions upon millions of dollars that are up for grabs, ultimately based on these types of votes, there needs to be more rules in place to set guidelines on voting criteria.  Even with the playoffs coming to college football next season, the AP and USA Today polls can still play a major role in influencing the selection committee.  Can you imagine the backlash the selection committee would receive if they were to by pass a unanimous #4 ranked team in both AP and USA Today polls for any other team?  I don't even want to imagine what would happen if a by-passed team were ranked higher than #4.  Riots may break out across the country.

All in all, I think the point I'm trying to make is that the NCAA would be wise to make some sort of official statement in the off season declaring these polls invalid and of no importance in selecting playoff teams.  And they should make that statement multiple times.  OR....   they could attempt to impose rules and/or guidelines in voting for AP and USA Today members.  But in my opinion, trying to tell the media what to do is like trying to tell a spoiled child no.  So the former of the two ideas is probably the best course of action.

In the end, transparency in selection criteria will do the selection committee wonders in the eye of the public.  If the teams and the public know what it takes to make the playoffs ahead of time, then that will greatly minimize the controversy come selection time.

Football Pick'em

Coach's Locks Week 2

 

 

After a solid week ATS going 11 - 4, not to mention picking two upsets and three of the 4 loses were because of spreads, I am ready to shine the light on 15 new winners. So without further delay here we go.

 

Home team is BOLD.

 

1.     Duke by 5.5 over MEMPHIS (my favorite)

 

2.     INDIANA by 13.5 over Navy

 

3.     NORTHWESTERN by 12.5 over Syracuse

 

4.     MICHIGAN by 3.5 over Notre Dame (almost my favorite)

 

5.     OHIO by 5.5 over North Texas

 

6.     Oregon by 21.5 over VIRGINIA

 

7.    BAYLOR by 27.5 over Buffalo

 

8.    LSU by 34.5 over UAB

 

9.    Florida by 3.5 over MIAMI

 

10.  KANSAS ST. by 9.5 over UL Lafayette

 

Three stretches against the spread are;

 

11.   Cincinnati by 7.5 over ILLINOIS

 

12.   Western Kentucky getting 13.5 from TENNESSEE (UT will win)

 

13.   Texas by 7.5 over BYU

 

The two upset specials are;

 

14.   South Alabama getting 6.5 from TULANE

 

15.   So. Carolina getting 3.5 from GEORGIA

 

There are the winners for this week. If you know someone that could use a little help with their picks, tell'em about my posts. I hit over 63% last year and I am off to a good start again this year. As always, may the spread be with you.

 

Coach