Playing Devil's Advocate

     So Ohio St recently lost its starting QB, Braxton Miller, for the season with a shoulder injury. Many have said that this is/was a devastating injury to tOSU national title hopes. Initially, I was inclined to agree with everyone. I still do. But I want to play devil's advocate for a second. Why are tOSU's hopes dashed but Alabama is still in the running? Both teams are replacing a lot of talent, in particular breaking in rookie QB's. The real difference is that tOSU has an immensely easier schedule than Alabama. Ohio State plays one team ranked in the pre-season top 25, Alabama plays the other 24 teams. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration but you get my point. Alabama gets to play Florida, Texas A&M, LSU, and Auburn. Ohio State gets to play Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan State, and Michigan.

     Ohio State plays Virginia Tech September 6th. Virginia Tech very well might beat them that game, but should tOSU win then they could easily be 8-0 heading in to the Michigan State game. Undefeated in November certainly sounds like a playoff contender to me. Add on top of all that, tOSU's backup QB was a 4* recruit coming out of high school, and maybe all hope isn't lost in Columbus. 

     I think you could apply this argument to many teams throughout not only the SEC, but the entire nation. There are a lot of fresh faces at QB this year. That makes having a veteran QB all the more important to a title run. So losing an experienced QB weeks before the season starts does appear devastating, but is merely just placing you at par for the course. You're now like many other teams with a fresh face at QB. Just another obstacle to overcome.

LesMiles.Net Trailer - Alabama Game

What did we learn Week 3

Johnny Football, you can love him or hate him, he is a dynamic player that will lead his team to wins. The only real problem is the offense can not keep up with the woefully inadequate defense at Texas A & M. A broadcaster on the Rice game proclaimed that TAMU was an SEC caliber defense, not even close. I will grant you that Alabama is good but do we really know. They themselves left a lot of plays on the field. Never the less, both teams will be in the hunt for the chance to represent the SEC West division in Atlanta.

Here we go with some observations;

1.   Coaches hot seat list;

          Bo Pelini was hired to resurrect the "Black Shirts" at Nebraska - failed so far.

          Dan Mullen is losing the recruiting battle to in-state rival Ole Miss. MSU will be looking soon.

          Lane Kiffen will only survive until USC can restock the shelves from probation (2yr max)

          Mack Brown - if he were a roast, you'd stick a fork in him at Texas.

2.    Nick Saban's next job, Texas! Can you imagine how he could lock up the talent rich state and build another dynasty.

3.    Senior QB's make all of the difference in an offense's production. Just look around the programs that are lighting up the scoreboard and in most of them there is a seasoned veteran.

4.    Auburn is better but there is night and day difference between Auburn and any of the top tier teams in the SEC. LSU, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A & M all have strong enough defenses and balanced offenses that do not need to scheme you to be successful.

5.    Want to talk about a fast paced offense, Arizona St ran 52 plays in the first half Saturday night. I think they finished near 100. But because of this helter-skelter approach they often times look undisciplined and random. It must have worked, they won the game over Wisconsin.

Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.

What a great day of college football

Yesterday was an unbelievable day of college football. LSU absolutely trounced Auburn 45-10, which was certainly nice to see. Alabama was a little slow starting but eventually took control of the game against Tennessee in the second half and won 37-6. More amazingly was Michigan State's Hail Mary at the final seconds to beat previously unbeaten Wisconsin, 37-31. Then after a rain delay, Texas Tech beats Oklahoma 41-38. So two high ranked unbeaten teams fall yesterday leaving 8 unbeaten teams left in FBS football. Those 8 teams are: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Boise St., Clemson, Kansas St., and Houston. Most of those teams will actually play each other in the regular season. LSU plays Alabama Nov. 5th at 7pm central. Kansas St. plays Oklahoma St. Nov. 5th. Of the other unbeaten teams, most will play a tough schedule or at least one tough opponent in the remaining weeks. Stanford plays Oregon Nov. 12. Clemson plays Georgia Tech Oct. 29th, and South Carolina Nov. 26th.  Houston and Boise St. however don't have much of a schedule left. Houston plays SMU on Nov. 19th, although Houston is too low ranked to be a significant factor in BCS bowls. Boise St. plays TCU on Nov. 12 but that will not be a big enough game to boost Boise St. up in the rankings.  The next three weeks of college football should be really exciting. New BCS rankings should be released tonight at approximately 8:30/7:30 central on ESPN. I'll be looking for LSU to be #1 followed by Alabama at #2. The real question will be what order the remaining teams will be in and how close will they be to LSU/Alabama.