Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.

Some quick thoughts on the LSU/TAMU game tomorrow

     I just wanted to post a few thoughts on tomorrow's game before I go to sleep. This game should be very exciting in my opinion.  In spite of the 11 am cst kickoff time, I have a feeling the crowd will be raucous.  I feel fairly certain that there will be plenty of Tiger fans crashing the midnight yell practice of the Aggies.  That will could make for an interesting atmosphere before and during the game.  Anyways, LSU will have to make some big plays early to take the home crowd out of it.  In particular, the LSU DE's, Mingo and Montgomery, must maintain containment on Manziel.  On top of that, I think Eric Reid must have a spectacular game like he did against South Carolina in order for LSU to contain the Aggie offense.  I found a great article that sums up the approach to stopping the Aggie offense here.  When LSU is on offense, they will need to establish the run game much like the USC game last week.  Also the receivers need to continue to catch passes and move the chains on third downs.  Mettenberger had a much improved game last week and I would like to see him build on that.

     Two hidden keys that I think will give great insight as to how this game will end up are:  1) if you see Les Miles with a play chart in his hands on the sideline and 2) the play calling on offense of the second series for LSU.  If you see the first item and the second item seems to flow/feed off of the first series then LSU will cruise to a victory over TAMU.  However, if you don't see number 1 then be warry.  And if you don't see number 2 then it will be a long day for the Tigers.

     I have a feeling we will see both of those things listed tomorrow and LSU will rack up another impressive performance stat wise, the scoreboard may not indicate that same. My prediction:

LSU 24  TAMU 17  (late td by TAMU makes it close)

A few quick thoughts on the upcoming USC @ LSU game

     First off I have to say I am a little worried about this game.  I do like the fact that it's a home game for LSU and on top of that it's a night game. I do like the fact that USC rarely puts together consecutive great performances; USC has only won once in Death Valley at night (1984); also like the fact that Les Miles has only lost back to back games once in his entire career. However, I am still very concerned about the health and pass blocking ability of LSU's offensive line/RB picking up blitzes. Combine that with a very good Defensive line of USC and that begins to spell trouble in my mind. And once you add on a mobile QB that USC has; I think that could spell disaster late in the game for LSU.  Much like the Florida game, the ability to run the ball (both designed runs with RB and QB and the ability to scramble with the QB) and run it well will wear down the LSU front 7 especially late in the game.

     The more I think about it the more I start to believe that points will certainly come at a premium in this game.  I'm thinking a score somewhere around 17-14 type points. Maybe lower.  Not sure what the Vegas over/under is for this game but I would advise to put the money on the under.

     For LSU to be able to win this game, I feel that the field position battle will be the biggest and most important throughout the game.  Brad Wing must out punt the USC punter. To help in this battle, the LSU offense must get at least one first down at least every other possession in order to maintain good field position.  Of course LSU must take full advantage of good field position and score TD's when deep in the red zone, but in the end multiple FG's may win this game.

     In order to do all of that, LSU will need to have very manageable third downs and distances.  Somewhere around 3rd and 3 or less. I think with this down and distance it isn't quite necessary to pass.  With an established running game, this can open up to many different looks and plays that should help keep the defense on their heels.

     To be able to set up a 3rd and 3 yards or shorter, LSU must gain at least 7 yards on the first two downs combined.  There are many different ways to accomplish this, however I feel that utilizing screens, TE's down the seam, bubble screens to WR's, draw plays, and misdirections will greatly help in opening up the power run game between the tackles.  And of course that leads to the very most important aspect and that is establishing a power run game between the tackles.  Every available RB will need to rotate in to accomplish all of this.

    When it comes to LSU on defense, I'm not nearly as concerned. If the offense can execute their game plan then the defense will have time to rest between possessions. With a rested defense, keeping contain on Lattimore and Shaw is possible.  And besides, John Chavis is about as consistent and reliable of a defensive coordinator as you can get.   I feel very comfortable saying he finds a way to hold USC to under 20 points definitely and probably under 17.

     So there you have it folks.  The players that will win this game for LSU are Brad Wing and whichever defensive player can create a turnover deep in USC territory.  No pressure guys, time to let loose and have fun.  Just win baby!

It's been too long

     Way too long since I've posted last. In fact the college football landscape has changed drastically since then. Florida State was once considered a strong team to de-throne the mighty SEC. However NC State had other things in mind. USC was certainly pre-season champs until they got knocked off by Stanford. Of course Stanford was defeated by Washington and Washington was crushed by LSU. Nothing new to see here, just the same ole SEC > Pac12 segment of college football.
     Well, onto more recent events.  LSU host South Carolina this weekend in Death Valley. This should be a great match up of two great defenses. Scoring will most likely come at a premium. I like many others feel that it might be time for Coach Les Miles to let loose a little with the offensive play calling. It certainly seems that the routes receivers run are very vanilla (i.e. not many crossing routes, slants, posts, etc) and on top of everything else they rarely try to get the ball in the hands of Russell Shepard. I personally we have Shepard on the field about 90% of the offensive plays and he would be in motion on roughly 75% of those plays. I would make the defense adjust to his presence on the field. And I would like to include more jet sweeps to him just to get him the ball out of the backfield.
     I said it last week and I'll say it again this week: This will be a close ball game and LSU will have to do whatever it can to pull out the victory. I feel a fake fg/punt or go for it on fourth down type game coming up. As heart-stopping as those moments can be during the game, they sure to add tons of excitement. Regardless, I can't wait for kickoff. Geaux Tigers!!!