Most Important Games Of Week 3

     I started to write this piece again last week, but it was a fairly down week in college football. This week is a little better with some big match ups that I'm sure many of you will be watching or at least keeping your eye on the score. So if your team is blowing out it's opponent and you need something else to watch/root for, or if you just crave more football in general, then I am going to give you a list of games with importance to the SEC as a conference.

     Again this list is meant to have more of a big picture feel to it early in the season. This is intended to give fans a rooting interest in games that don't always involve SEC teams, but can indirectly impact the SEC's strength of schedule reputation and therefore impact playoff seeding. We are rooting for the SEC to get multiple teams in the playoff with as high a seed as possible. Having said that, let's start the list. Here are the Top 8 games for week 3.


#8. All SEC vs Non-Conference Opponents
     These games are pretty obvious why they are important; the more times SEC teams beat non-conference opponents the better the SEC looks as a conference. UCF @ Mizzou, UMass @ Vandy, Arkansas @ Texas Tech*, UL-Lafayette @ Ole Miss, Miss St @ South Alabama**, Southern Miss @ Alabama, UL Monroe @ LSU, Tennessee @ Oklahoma*, Rice @ aTm. These are 9 games throughout Saturday that are important to the SEC's reputation. Some more so than others.

*These are the biggest of games in this group. I'll mention them again later.
**I don't care who you are, it says something to go on the road and beat a team on their field.

#7. Ohio @ Marshall
     Marshall is a team that was talked about pre-season as potentially going undefeated this year. They probably will. Normally I wouldn't have a problem with this. But the less the media (ESPN) talks about giving the little guy that happened to go undefeated a chance at the playoff, the more they can talk about giving multiple spots to the SEC. So Go Bobcats! Kickoff is 12:00 pm ET on CBS Sports Network.

#6. Boise St. @ UConn
     Ole Miss beat Boise St. the first weekend of the season. Therefore, the better Boise St. looks, the better Ole Miss looks. At least on paper. Kickoff is 12:00 pm ET on ABC/ESPN2.

#5. Wake Forest @ Utah St.
     Tennessee beat Utah St. the first weekend of the season, so see #6 for one reason this game is important. Add on top of that, a MWC team beating an ACC team can only help to drag down the ACC as a conference helping to give some room between the SEC and ACC. Kickoff is 7:00 pm ET on CBS Sports Network.

#4. ECU @ Virginia Tech
     South Carolina beat ECU last weekend. Also, Virginia Tech beat Ohio State last weekend. I think you can start to see the picture I'm trying to paint with this game. SEC<C-USA<ACC<B1G. I know this isn't how it really works, but no harm in rooting for it. Additionally, multiple SEC teams play multiple C-USA teams so the better the C-USA looks, the better the SEC looks. Kickoff is 12:00 pm ET on ESPN/WatchESPN.

     Yes, I do realize that in #7 I am rooting for a MAC team to beat a C-USA team which contradicts what I just said in the previous paragraph. However, any C-USA team beating a Power 5 conference team can greatly help the SEC's strength of schedule. Hence why this game is far more important that the other game.

#3. UTSA @ Oklahoma St.
     This is somewhat of a unique game for this list. Neither of these teams play and SEC team. However, UTSA is a new member of the C-USA and quite frankly I think they are a dark horse candidate to win their conference. Again, anytime a C-USA team can beat a Power 5 conference team that can only help the SEC. UTSA is actually a decent team and Oklahoma St. doesn't play defense. If UTSA can keep it close they just might be able to pull off the upset, but keeping it close is a small victory in itself. Kickoff is 7:00 pm ET.

#2. Arkansas @ Texas Tech
     I don't think I really need to explain why this game is important. I actually think Arkansas has a great chance of beating Texas Tech. Arkansas is getting better on offense and Tech doesn't even pretend to play defense. Like, at all. They have given up a combined 61 points to Central Arkansas and UTEP. Yes, you read that correctly. So look for lots of points to be scored in this game and hopefully Arkansas can have the ball last with a chance to win. This game is being played in Dallas and kickoff is set for 3:30 pm ET on ABC.

#1. Tennessee @ Oklahoma
     And now we have reached the most important game of week 3. This game is huge. This is the type of game that can shape and define conference perceptions. Oklahoma is currently ranked #4 in a bunch of polls that don't matter any more. Tennessee is still rebuilding, but this game will certainly test the foundation. A Volunteer victory here would all but punch a second ticket for the SEC into the playoff. No better comparison of how much better the SEC is than everyone else when a supposed lower to middle of the pack SEC team beats your conference's best team. We should all be Tennessee fans this weekend. Yes, even you Bama fans. Beating a team that beat the #4 ranked team looks pretty good on a resume. So let's all begrudgingly learn the words to Rocky Top and cheer our a** off this weekend. Kickoff is 8:00 pm ET on ABC.

Recap Of Most Important Games Week 1

     Looks like the SEC did pretty well over the weekend. The conference finished with an 8-1 mark in non-conference games. Unfortunately, Vandy is Vandy again. It was a good run 'Dores. I guess James Franklin really is that good of a coach. Of the 8 most important games last week, 7 were winners for the SEC. That's the sort of performance by a conference that can get you two spots in the playoffs.

     Looking back, the lone loss was a close one with UCF being edged out by Penn St 26-24. UCF is off this weekend to prepare for their trip to Missouri on September 13th. UCF should still get plenty of wins this year but it would have been nice for Mizzou and the SEC to have them 1-0 heading into that game.

Most Important Games For The SEC Week 1

     Instead of doing a traditional Top 25 list, I figured I would rank the Top 8 games in order of importance to the SEC for week 1. This will be a list of games that will focus more on non-conference games and some games not involving any SEC teams at all. The reason for this list is to point out potential games that may later in the season have an impact on an SEC team making the College Football Playoff. Now this list will have more of a "big picture" feel to it early in the season, and become a little more focused throughout the year. Also, I decided to create this list because I have a feeling that most fans of SEC teams already know their respective teams schedule by heart but may need a rooting interest for times that their team isn't on the field. So without further ado, let's begin.


#8. Penn State @ UCF
     A win by UCF will help the non-conference schedule of Missouri while simultaneously bringing down the perception of the B1G. That sounds like a win-win situation to me. Add on top of that, this game is being played in Dublin, Ireland while a volcano erupts in nearby Iceland; this game has plenty of drama building already. But you'll have to wake up early to watch this game on Saturday with a 8:30  AM ET kickoff time. Game airs on ESPN2. UCF and Missouri face off Sept. 13th.

#7. Southern @ UL-Lafayette
     The Ragin' Cajuns of UL-Lafayette need to start the season off with a win. They go on the road to face both Ole Miss and Boise State in consecutive weeks starting Sept. 13th with Ole Miss. Southern @ UL-L kicks off at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN3.

#6. Wake Forest @ UL-Monroe
     If you're a fan of an SEC team, in particular LSU, Texas A&M, or Kentucky, you really want the Warhawks of UL-Monroe to win this game. Direct opponents strength of schedule implications here. This team has a real good chance of going to a bowl game at the end of this season, especially with a win against Wake Forest. Kick off is Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU.

#5. Southern Miss @ Miss State
     Southern Miss is not a very good football team and Mississippi State should prove that Saturday 7:30 PM ET on the SEC Network. The fewer the blemishes on the SEC non-conference schedule the better.

#4. Utah State @ Tennessee
     Utah State has the potential to be a decent team this year. Chuckie Keeton could prove to be a good QB for Utah State, especially going up against some question marks on defense for Tennessee. This game might be a close one. Kickoff is Sunday 7:00 PM ET on the SEC Network.

#3. Boise State @ Ole Miss
     This is an important game for the obvious reasons. This game is on Thursday night, in prime time, on ESPN. Ole Miss really needs to win this game for the sake of the SEC's reputation.

#2. Clemson @ UGA
     This is a huge game for obvious reasons. Both these teams are ranked in every top 25 poll and deservedly so. A win here for UGA would be great for the Bulldogs as well as the SEC reputation. Kick off scheduled for Saturday 5:30 PM ET on ESPN.

#1. LSU vs Wisconsin
     See #2. This game edges out Clemson @ UGA only for the slightly higher average ranking of the teams. But these games are arguably interchangeable for #1 and #2. Kick off is scheduled for Saturday 9:00 PM ET on ESPN.


     There you have it. My top 8 games for week 1. If you think I missed any or you want to add to this list, let me know in the comments.

NCAA D1-A Autonomy And What It Means To The Average Fan

     It means things are going to change, and I mean potentially big changes. Don't worry, the same 10-15 big name schools will still be the ones winning the championships, however there will most likely be a new championship being played. This new championship will allow the mid-majors an opportunity to compete for a trophy and potentially added revenue. Granted this added revenue won't be of the former BCS level, but it will be a slight boost. But I'm getting ahead of myself, let me back up and tell you how I got to this conclusion.

     First off, autonomy will be a step in the right direction for a small minority of student-athletes. To start, this will affect most athletes at the major universities, i.e. increased scholarship limits in sports such as baseball, softball, and other minor sports. This will really impact college football. This will allow universities to provide stipends to support full cost of attendance, medical coverage, and many more benefits. This will effectively toe the line of amateur athletics. After a few years of this passes and everyone realizes that attendance/viewership doesn't drop, more steps will be taken to push the student-athletes of the power 5 conferences toward semi-professionals. This will further separate the power 5 from the mid-majors and the rest of the NCAA. Once there is a full separation of the power 5 from the NCAA, these schools will be able to treat athletes as a sort of employee. Paid partly in education and partly in on field performance. This, of course, is something that happens roughly 10-15 years down the road.

     The benefit to the mid-major schools is a chance to compete for their own championship and potentially added revenue from increased bowl games. This doesn't mean there will be more bowl games overall, just more access to bowl games for the mid-major schools. The power 5 will eventually turn their respective conference championship games into a sort of bowl game/playoff game while eventually expanding the playoffs themselves. With an entirely new subdivision of NCAA football, there will be even less incentive to play the lower subdivisions within the NCAA. Thereby shortening the regular season while expanding the playoffs. Playoff expansion could extend into the conferences themselves, meaning a four team playoff for the conference championship. Explaining the feasibility of this idea is another article unto itself.

     All of these ideas/predictions could just be the day dreaming of a crazed lunatic, or maybe some of it comes true. Either way, feedback is always welcomed. Let the debates begin!

LesMiles.Net Trailer - Alabama Game

Football Pick'em Week 8

Ol coach had a tough week last Saturday with covering the spread. Vegas has really tightened up on us. We finished 6 - 9 for the first losing week in a while and our current year to date totals are 56 - 49.

HOME TEAMS

1.    Texas Tech by 6.5 over WEST VIRGINIA

2.    South Carolina by 7.5 over TENNESSEE

3.    Wisconsin by 10.5 over ILLINOIS

4.    Washington by 2.5 over ARIZONA STATE

5.    OREGON by 37.5 over Washington State

6.    Oregon State by 10.5 over CALIFORNIA

7.    ALABAMA by 28.5 over Arkansas

8.    LSU by 7.5 over OLE MISS

9.    BAYLOR by 31.5 over Iowa State

10.  OHIO STATE by 17.5 over Iowa

These are my take the points specials;

11.  VANDY getting 8.5 from Georgia

12.  UCLA getting 4.5 from STANFORD

13.  CLEMSON getting 2.5 from FSU

14.  Auburn getting 13.5 from TEXAS A&M

15.  HOUSTON getting 9.5 from BYU

There you have it, good luck and as always "MAY THE SPREAD BE WITH YOU".

Football Pick'em Week 7

I had my first losing week in two years last week going 7 - 8. This brings the year to date total to 50 - 40 through 6 weeks. The spread gets tougher to beat every year about this time. Vegas has really homed in on the games. But I am committed to giving my clients the best possible information. So here we go.

HOME TEAM

1.    Nebraska by 14.5 over PURDUE

2.    TEXAS TECH by 14.5 over Iowa State

3.    Missouri getting 8.5 from GEORGIA

4.    CLEMSON by 24.5 over Boston College

5.    Baylor by 17.5 over KANSAS STATE

6.    LSU by 7.5 over Florida

7.    Oregon by 13.5 over WASHINGTON

8.    Texas A & M by 6.5 over OLE MISS

9.    UCLA by 24.5 over California

10.  WASHINGTON STATE by 1.5 over Oregon State

For the riskier play

11.  South Carolina by 5.5 over ARKANSAS

12.  Northwestern getting 10.5 from WISCONSIN

13.  Michigan by 2.5 over PENN STATE

The upset specials this week are

14.  Indiana getting 9.5 from MICHIGAN STATE

15.  KENTUCKY getting 27.5 from Alabama

As always may the spread be with you.

Football Pick'em

We had a winning week again for week #5 going 9 - 6 ATS but only 5 - 5 on my top ten. This makes our year to date total 43 - 32 or 11 games to the good. Coach has gone back to the drawing board to refine the strategy for success. The staff of researchers came up with the following;

1. We are 11 - 1 in the SEC, 7 - 2 in the BIG 12, and 8 - 1 in the PAC 12.
2. We are better in the early games and next best in the night games.
3. We are not good in the BIG10 and ACC.

So with that said here we go for this week.

HOME TEAM

1.    Texas Tech by 14.5 over KANSAS

2.    Georgia by 10.5 over TENNESSEE

3.    Oregon by 38.5 over COLORADO

4.    LSU by 9.5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE

5.    Arizona State by 5.5 over NOTRE DAME

6.    STANFORD by 6.5 over Washington

7.    OKLAHOMA by 10.5 over TCU

8.    FLORIDA by 10.5 over Arkansas

9.    BAYLOR by 27.5 over West Virginia

10.  Louisville by 33.5 over TEMPLE

Something a little more risky;

11.  VANDY by 2.5 over Missouri

12.  AUBURN getting 2.5 from Ole Miss

13.  Washington State by 3.5 over CALIFORNIA

My upset specials this week are

14.  NORTHWESTERN getting 5.5 from Ohio State

15.  Minnesota getting 20.5 from MICHIGAN

Good luck sports fans and as always "May the Spread be With You".

Football Pick'em

Last week was not our best. Vegas is definitely homing in on the spreads making it tough on the crack staff of prognosticators working with coach. Last week's results were a profitable 8 - 7 but we broke even on the top ten at 5 - 5. Season to date results are 28 - 17 or 62%.

Let's get to the meat for this week. Here are week 4's Coach's Locks;

HOME TEAM

1.    BAYLOR by 28.5 over UL Monroe

2.    GA TECH by 5.5 over No. Carolina

3.    Kansas St getting 4.5 from TEXAS

4.    Wyoming by 3.5 over AIR FORCE

5.    Missouri by 3.5 over INDIANA

6.    Rice getting 2.5 from HOUSTON

7.    NOTRE DAME by 6.5 over Michigan State

8.    Arkansas getting 1.5 from RUTGERS

9.    Clemson by 13.5 over NO CAROLINA STATE

10.  LSU by 17.5 over Auburn

For those with a riskier appetite, try these;

11.  VIRGINIA TECH by 9.5 over Marshall

12.  FLORIDA ATL getting 4.5 from Middle Tenn

13.  LOUISVILLE by 41.5 over Florida Intl

My upset specials this week are;

14.  Colorado St getting 39.5 from ALABAMA ( Bama still wins)

15.  Idaho getting 31.5 from WASH STATE (take the points)

Well there they are, my best research says this is gonna be a good week so play heavy and go for the gold. Good luck and my the spread be with you.

Coach

Football Pick'em

Coach got surprised on a few games last week; Cincinnati, Texas, Florida and South Carolina. Florida was a real let down losing to an ACC team but when you turn the ball over 6 times you just don't score points. Texas is a disaster and now Cincy is without their QB and probably won't show up on my radar again this year.

The totals for last week was a respectable 9 - 6 ATS. I was 8 - 2 on the top ten but only 1 - 4 on the streches and upsets. This brings my two week season total to 20 - 10. Sounds profitable to me.

HOME TEAMS IN BOLD

Now for this weeks locks.

1.   Bowling Green getting 2.5 from INDIANA

2.   UCLA getting 4.5 from NEBRASKA

3.   OKLAHOMA by 24.5 over Tulsa

4.   Louisville by 13.5 over KENTUCKY

5.   FLORIDA STATE by 31.5 over Nevada

6.   Northern Illinios by 27.5 over IDAHO

7.   PENN STATE by 4.5 over Central Florida

8.   MIDDLE TENN by 6.5 over Memphis

9.   Wisconsin getting 5.5 from ARIZONA ST

10. Ball State by 2.5 over NORTH TEXAS

A little bit riskier plays are;

11. AUBURN by 6.5 over Miss State

12. Maryland by 7.5 over CONNECTICUT

13. SOUTH FLORIDA by 12.5 over Florida Atlantic

The upset specials are not really upsets but these two games will not cover the spread.

14. Notre Dame by 20.5 over PURDUE (TAKE THE POINTS)

15. LSU by 36.5 over Kent St ( TAKE THE POINTS)

Well folks there they are. May the spread be with you.

Coach

ESPN's latest SEC power rankings released

"Don't sleep on these Tigers. They're undervalued, but were very impressive in their 37-27 victory over a ranked TCU team in their own backyard." - Edward Aschoff

LSU is the biggest winner in the latest power ranking poll from ESPN. They climbed 3 spots up to number 3 for the week.  Looking forward to seeing where the Tigers will be ranked in the AP and USA Today polls for this week.

Saturday is almost here!

I can't wait for game time!

Good articles on college football

These are some articles pertaining to college football that I found interesting.

Impact of stats on college football playoff selection committee
       This one provides an interesting view of what stats and how these stats will be used in the selection process for the upcoming college football playoffs. Personally, I feel that there should definitely be more transparency in the selection process. Tell everyone the exact criteria that will be used in selecting teams. Also, the selection committee members should be ready to explain and justify their picks to the nation.  I would also like to see a margin of victory alongside strength of schedule as statistical components to aid in the selection process.


     Speaking of statistics, here is an article about big plays and how often they lead to points on the board. The numbers aren't all that surprising, but it is nice to have a more precise percentage to spout in those intense football discussions we all get in to.


     Hope you enjoy the reading material and feel free to leave some comments.

Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.

Coach's Week 9 picks are up!

     Coach has posted his locks of the week.  He's going with a total of 20 picks this week, ranked in groups of 5.  I'm sure we are all looking forward to Saturday.  Good luck everyone.

Some quick thoughts on the LSU/TAMU game tomorrow

     I just wanted to post a few thoughts on tomorrow's game before I go to sleep. This game should be very exciting in my opinion.  In spite of the 11 am cst kickoff time, I have a feeling the crowd will be raucous.  I feel fairly certain that there will be plenty of Tiger fans crashing the midnight yell practice of the Aggies.  That will could make for an interesting atmosphere before and during the game.  Anyways, LSU will have to make some big plays early to take the home crowd out of it.  In particular, the LSU DE's, Mingo and Montgomery, must maintain containment on Manziel.  On top of that, I think Eric Reid must have a spectacular game like he did against South Carolina in order for LSU to contain the Aggie offense.  I found a great article that sums up the approach to stopping the Aggie offense here.  When LSU is on offense, they will need to establish the run game much like the USC game last week.  Also the receivers need to continue to catch passes and move the chains on third downs.  Mettenberger had a much improved game last week and I would like to see him build on that.

     Two hidden keys that I think will give great insight as to how this game will end up are:  1) if you see Les Miles with a play chart in his hands on the sideline and 2) the play calling on offense of the second series for LSU.  If you see the first item and the second item seems to flow/feed off of the first series then LSU will cruise to a victory over TAMU.  However, if you don't see number 1 then be warry.  And if you don't see number 2 then it will be a long day for the Tigers.

     I have a feeling we will see both of those things listed tomorrow and LSU will rack up another impressive performance stat wise, the scoreboard may not indicate that same. My prediction:

LSU 24  TAMU 17  (late td by TAMU makes it close)

This week's locks are in!

     That's right, Coach Bourque has picked his winners against the spread for week 8 of the college football season.  This is his first installment so his official record will start at 0-0, but some can already attest to the many winners he has picked throughout the season so far. You can see his selections on his page by clicking the tab at the top of this web page, or click here.  Good luck to everyone on their picks.

We Have A New Contributor....

     A new member to the KB3 sports blog;  my dad Steve.  We will be making college football picks against the spread weekly.  These picks will be listed under the tab "Coach Bourque's Locks Of The Week."  We will try to get these picks in early enough in the week so our viewers can potentially play the movement in Vegas spreads to their advantage. I will also try to keep up with his overall record on picks along with a running tally of units wagered. Look for this new feature early next week, around Monday or Tuesday.

A few quick thoughts on the upcoming USC @ LSU game

     First off I have to say I am a little worried about this game.  I do like the fact that it's a home game for LSU and on top of that it's a night game. I do like the fact that USC rarely puts together consecutive great performances; USC has only won once in Death Valley at night (1984); also like the fact that Les Miles has only lost back to back games once in his entire career. However, I am still very concerned about the health and pass blocking ability of LSU's offensive line/RB picking up blitzes. Combine that with a very good Defensive line of USC and that begins to spell trouble in my mind. And once you add on a mobile QB that USC has; I think that could spell disaster late in the game for LSU.  Much like the Florida game, the ability to run the ball (both designed runs with RB and QB and the ability to scramble with the QB) and run it well will wear down the LSU front 7 especially late in the game.

     The more I think about it the more I start to believe that points will certainly come at a premium in this game.  I'm thinking a score somewhere around 17-14 type points. Maybe lower.  Not sure what the Vegas over/under is for this game but I would advise to put the money on the under.

     For LSU to be able to win this game, I feel that the field position battle will be the biggest and most important throughout the game.  Brad Wing must out punt the USC punter. To help in this battle, the LSU offense must get at least one first down at least every other possession in order to maintain good field position.  Of course LSU must take full advantage of good field position and score TD's when deep in the red zone, but in the end multiple FG's may win this game.

     In order to do all of that, LSU will need to have very manageable third downs and distances.  Somewhere around 3rd and 3 or less. I think with this down and distance it isn't quite necessary to pass.  With an established running game, this can open up to many different looks and plays that should help keep the defense on their heels.

     To be able to set up a 3rd and 3 yards or shorter, LSU must gain at least 7 yards on the first two downs combined.  There are many different ways to accomplish this, however I feel that utilizing screens, TE's down the seam, bubble screens to WR's, draw plays, and misdirections will greatly help in opening up the power run game between the tackles.  And of course that leads to the very most important aspect and that is establishing a power run game between the tackles.  Every available RB will need to rotate in to accomplish all of this.

    When it comes to LSU on defense, I'm not nearly as concerned. If the offense can execute their game plan then the defense will have time to rest between possessions. With a rested defense, keeping contain on Lattimore and Shaw is possible.  And besides, John Chavis is about as consistent and reliable of a defensive coordinator as you can get.   I feel very comfortable saying he finds a way to hold USC to under 20 points definitely and probably under 17.

     So there you have it folks.  The players that will win this game for LSU are Brad Wing and whichever defensive player can create a turnover deep in USC territory.  No pressure guys, time to let loose and have fun.  Just win baby!

It's been too long

     Way too long since I've posted last. In fact the college football landscape has changed drastically since then. Florida State was once considered a strong team to de-throne the mighty SEC. However NC State had other things in mind. USC was certainly pre-season champs until they got knocked off by Stanford. Of course Stanford was defeated by Washington and Washington was crushed by LSU. Nothing new to see here, just the same ole SEC > Pac12 segment of college football.
     Well, onto more recent events.  LSU host South Carolina this weekend in Death Valley. This should be a great match up of two great defenses. Scoring will most likely come at a premium. I like many others feel that it might be time for Coach Les Miles to let loose a little with the offensive play calling. It certainly seems that the routes receivers run are very vanilla (i.e. not many crossing routes, slants, posts, etc) and on top of everything else they rarely try to get the ball in the hands of Russell Shepard. I personally we have Shepard on the field about 90% of the offensive plays and he would be in motion on roughly 75% of those plays. I would make the defense adjust to his presence on the field. And I would like to include more jet sweeps to him just to get him the ball out of the backfield.
     I said it last week and I'll say it again this week: This will be a close ball game and LSU will have to do whatever it can to pull out the victory. I feel a fake fg/punt or go for it on fourth down type game coming up. As heart-stopping as those moments can be during the game, they sure to add tons of excitement. Regardless, I can't wait for kickoff. Geaux Tigers!!!