Coach's Week 12 Locks

I took it on the chin last week finishing 7 - 3 on the top 10 but going 2 - 8 on the next 10 to finish 9 - 11 overall. This brings my overall record ATS for the season to 48 - 27 for a 64% winning margin. This weeks games look to be every bit as challenging and the simple fact that we are playing in November and with rivalry games coming up, anything can happen. So here we go;

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

1) Kansas St over BAYLOR by 11 1/2 - KSU has been amazing against the spread and Collin Klein is back to full strength health wise. Look for a Bill Synder team to stay focused on the task at hand to secure victory.

 

2) CLEMSON over No. Car. St by 17 1/2 - Clemson is clicking on all cylinders, playing at home, and still trying to reach a BCS bowl therefore needing all of the style points they can muster/

3) Wash. over COLORADO by 20 1/2 - This can be a risky one as none of knows when Colorado may actually show up and play a game. But until that happens I am going with the trend.

 

4) Okla over WVU by 10 1/2 - Same tune second verse, until WVU shows they are going to play some defense, I don't see any reason to think any number of points to too many for the opponent to overcome.

 

5) Ark St over TROY by 3 1/2 - Did you see that game last week versus La Monroe. WOW now that is a creative, explosive offense. Troy will not be able to match them scoring. Malzahn can match play calling with anyone and should not have any trouble here.

6) Northwestern getting 6 1/2 from MICHIGAN ST - The Wildcats will cover the spread but probably not win the game. In fact the Spartans typically do not cover. This one will come down to the last drive and a field goal. Take the points.

7) MIAMI over So. Fla by 6 1/2 - The Hurricanes missed a cover last week by 1. Should not have the problem this week with a very inept offense of USF.

 

8) BOISE ST over Col St by 28 1/2 - Boise has hit it's stride offensively and the defense has turned it up a notch. they are not the Broncos of yesteryear but they are good enough to run the table against the Mountain West.

 

9) UCLA getting 3 1/2 from So. Cal - This is strictly a momentum play. UCLA in on the upswing from low expectations and USC is trending down from the mountain top. Mora has the process working and they are currently the second highest scoring team in the PAC 12.

 

10) LSU over Ole Miss by 19 1/2 - Call me a homer but Mettenberger and the play selection have finally found equilibrium. The porous defense from the Rebels will be no match for the athletes on the Tiger sideline. This is a rivalry game, one that will get out of hand early and often.

11) Mid Tenn St over SO ALA by 9 1/2 - The Blue Raiders have very quietly made their way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference while So. Ala. is working to survive their first full year in Div.I football. MTSU has a very good run game and strong defense with too many athletes.

 

12) CINCINNATI over Rutgers by 6 1/2 - The Scarlett Knights are overrated versus good offenses and the Bearcats can put some points on the board. Also Cinn is solid at home. If Kent St can put up 42 on Rutgers, so can Cincinnati.

 

A Few Bonus Picks

 

1) Smu over RICE by 3 1/2

2) Fsu over MARYLAND by 30 1/2

3) Ohio St getting 2 1/2 from WISCONSIN

4) Utah St over LA TECH by 3 1/2

5) Texas-San Antonio over IDAHO by 5 1/2

6) OKLAHOMA ST over Texas Tech by 10 1/2

7) Kent St getting 2 1/2 from BOWLING GREEN

8) MISS ST over Arkansas by 6 1/2

 

Well there it is folks, good luck and may the spread be with you.

 

Coach

 

 

Why your schedule matters.

Is it better to play the toughest part of your schedule early or late in the season? Let's discuss the pros and cons.

Pro - Injuries are a part of the game but the early part of the season has put less wear and tear on the players thus putting the team in a better position to weather the storm of tough competition.

Con - If you lose some starters early in the season due to those injuries, your team had better be deep with talent. Also the coaching staff should have a plan to develop young athletes.

Pro - By playing tough competition early, you can fine tune the offensive and defensive timing and strategies for success.

Con - If you are not prepared for the task, you can lose two and be out of the running for a championship.

Pro - It is better to lose one early and gain momentum throughout the season to finish strong leading to either a championship run or a strong recruiting year or an early start on next year.

Con - You could lose your team, but good coaches in good programs don't let this happen.

Bottom line, it is in this writers opinion that it is better to play a tough schedule throughout the season. This will keep the players focused on the task at hand each and every week. The coaches are challenged to develop the game plan to ensure success at every step. I believe that Texas A & M, through the virtue of a very difficult schedule to start the season, was better prepared to compete with Alabama than the inverse. The Tide took a significant beating in the previous week's contest and could not sustain the focus necessary to win the next game. In fact it will take a excellent coaching job by Saban and his staff to prepare them for the contest versus Georgia in Atlanta. The bulldogs are the hottest team in the SEC (outside of LSU) right now.

If your opinion is different or if you have something to add to the topic, please us a comment.