Notre Dame - 22 USC - 13

Just finished watching and I have a few thoughts.

1.   Notre Dame is not the best team in the country. In fact I am not sure they are even in the top 5. I know the media loves them at the TV ratings will love them with their fan base. I will take Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or Texas A & M versus the Irish any day and all day long. The USC defense is not very good at all with almost no depth, the offense is very inconsistent but still moved the ball well on the Irish famous "D". I may be wrong but this looks like another championship game that is not that close in the end and the 7th straight for the SEC.

2.   Max Witteg is going to be a very able replacement to Matt Barkley. He showed a lot of promise as a good QB.

3.   Don't ever pick the ACC teams over any good teams from another conference. I was foolish to believe the hype about Clemson and Florida State. Even Wake Forrest got pummeled by Vandy.

4.   While "Johnny Football" probably will not win the Heisman Trophy simply because he is a freshman (the AARP voters won't allow it). He is the real deal and his stats are as impressive as both Cam Newton and Tim Tebow during the years they won the trophy. Collin Klein has a chance next week to lock it up with an impressive performance against a confused Texas Longhorn defense.

5.   Alabama vs Georgia next week should be a great battle. Both teams look like they are hitting on all cylinders.

LSU vs Arkansas

There was a good reason why I chose the Hogs plus the spread. And now you know.It would be easy to complain about the Tigers but we should not expect anything different from this team in the 12th and final regular season game especially on the road. A 20 - 13 win is good and don't forget that any win on the road in the SEC, even Arkansas, is a tough chore. So I will take'em any way I can get'em.

Here are the highlights as I saw them from my couch in the watching room for sports;

1.   Mettenberger while certainly not his best effort was relatively effective when we needed him most. 200 plus yards, no interceptions.

2.   While the defense bent, it did not break, giving up only 13 points will win most games.

3.   The return game bailed us out again and made life a little easier on the offense.

One day we will look back on this season and realize how much the Tigers accomplished in 2012. There are two first time starters at cornerbacks that are going to get better and end up pretty good, probably next year. The team as a whole is young, gaining valuable experience that will provide valuable depth next year when all of the injured return as well as the academic casualties from earlier this year. I also see alot of good things to build on for the offense as well. Receivers got better, O-line got better, QB got better and the RB were good all year long. We also found a TE that can run routes and catch the ball.

Don't hang your heads Tiger fans, we will take our bowl bid (probably Cotton) and prepare well to finish the season with 11 wins and momentum heading into off-season workouts.

It is still a great time to be a Tiger fan.

Coach's Week 13 Locks

The spreads got me last week. Vegas has really settled in on this season and they are well on the way to recovering all of their early seasons misfortune. I finished 11 - 9 ATS but 17 - 3 on the winners straight up. Some of the games were last minute spread losers such as Maryland scoring with less than a minute versus FSU, NC ST late versus Clemson. Also there were some close calls such as Boise St 1/2 point short and Middle Tenn St 1 1/2 short. That was the difference in a 15 - 5 instead of 11 - 9. YTD my record is 59 - 36 ATS which is 62% winners which is not bad for ol' amateur like me.

Well here we go with this weeks picks.

1.     Notre Dame over USC by 6 1/2  --  Too many things going right for the Irish and wrong for the Trojans to ignore this one. Barley is out and a redshirt freshman is in for USC going against one of the best defenses in the country.

2.     CLEMSON over So. Carolina by 3 1/2  --  This hurts my heart to pick against the SEC, but at home with the offensive weapons they have and the Gamecocks defense hurting no choice.

3.     La Monroe over FLA INTL by 5 1/2  --  Too much offense versus an average Sun Belt defense.

4.     Stanford over UCLA by 1/2  --  Before last week I would have taken the Bruins and there offense. Standford proved that a solid, disciplined defense can stop those wide out spread offenses by keeping them contained where they can make the mistakes. This game means too much to Standford and not enough to UCLA for a trip to the PAC 12 championship game.

5.     SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 4 1/2  --  This was a tough one to call but the Spartans have been solid ATS this year and they are winning as well. I am taking them since the Bulldogs have to travel to Calif.

6.     Rutgers getting 1 1/2 from PITT  --  Two reasons to pick the Scarlett Knights, 1) they are better and play consistent football and need to position themselves for a BCS Bowl Bid atop the Big East and 2) they just got accepted into the BIG 10. Both of theses are motivators that should easily overcome any home field advantage that PITT might get early in the game.

7.     MEMPHIS over So. Miss by 4 1/2  --  It is hard to believe that Memphis is actually better than another team in the Conf. USA but So. Miss is really bad at 0 - 11 but on the road they are going to finish 0 - 12.

8.     BAYLOR over Texas Tech by 2 1/2  --  Tuberville's tirade on the sideline two weeks ago will still have an effect on the team overall and Baylor's big win at home last week will carry over into this week. Look for the Bears to play well at home and win this one by 7+.

9.     FSU over Fla by 5 1/2  --  The Gator offense is struggling and the Seminole defense is not. This will make for a long day for Muschamp and Driskel leading to a rather low scoring but one sided win for Jimbo.

10.   PURDUE over Indiana by 5 1/2  --  Purdue has played well this season not by winning but in covering the spread. Let's keep the ball rolling.

10 Others to Consider

EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 4 1/2
West Virginia over IOWA ST by 1/2
ARIZONA over Arizona St by 2 1/2
Michigan getting 4 1/2 from OHIO ST
Tulsa over SMU by 4 1/2
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO getting 1 1/2 from Texas St
PENN ST over Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Rice getting 1 1/2 from UTEP
Unlv over HAWAII by 6 1/2
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 2 1/2


The Big Boy Games

TEXAS over Tcu by 8 1/2
ARKANSAS getting 12 1/2 from Lsu
Wash over WASH ST by 10 1/2
CINN over So. Fla by 12 1/2
Virginia getting 10 1/2 from VIR TECH
Mich St over MINNESOTA by 7 1/2
Okla St getting 8 1/2 from OKLA
ALA over Auburn by 31 1/2
NC ST over Boston College by 13 1/2
LOUISVILLE over UConn 12 1/2

Good luck and may the spread be with you.
Coach

Can You Handle the Truth? There will be BCS Chaos

Bammers so you are really excited about the inevitable return trip to the BCS Championship game. Well chaos is about to reach right up and bite you on the butt. Chew on this scenario,

Notre Dame gets beat (bad) by a weak USC team. In fact they get embarrassed with all of the hype about preparing for the championship game that the media really wants. In fact they want it so bad they are almost proclaiming them the eventual winner. They drop to number 4 or 5 in the ranking.

Florida loses to FSU in a close one, probably 17 - 10 or 17 - 13 and drops to number 8.

Clemson beats So. Carolina and finishes at number 7.

Alabama beats Auburn handily but loses to Georgia and drops to number 6.

Kansas State loses to Texas and drops somewhere between 10 and 12.

Oregon loses to Oregon State drops to number 9.

UCLA beats Stanford then loses the Pac 12 Championship game to Stanford but it is too late for either team take up more than one BCS game for the PAC 12.

Oklahoma wins out over Ok State and TCU.

LSU beats Arkansas and sits back to watch it all unfold. Do you remember 2007? The dominoes fell just right in the final two weeks to put the Fightin Tigers in the game which they won.

So here it, LSU vs Ga in Miami. The media goes crazy with another all SEC championship game, Notre Dame goes to the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson, FSU versus Rutgers in the Orange, Stanford versus Nebraska in the Rose, Oklahoma versus Oregon in the Fiesta.

Now how is that for madness/chaos?

LSU Football

LSU - 41 and Ole Miss - 35

Does the final score tell the whole story? I don't think so because when playing in the SEC there is always more to the game than just the total number of points. Don't get me wrong, winning the game by scoring more points than your opponent is the ultimate judgement on how you played the game. It is always better to play poorly and win the game than play very well and lose. An example of the latter is the Alabama game where LSU outplayed the Tide the entire second half and took a lead into the final minutes only to have Bama out play them for the win.

Last night Ole Miss played even to actually a little better than LSU, but the playmakers saved the day for the Tigers. Now here is what may have caused this game to closer than many thought, The Tigers played a 5 game stretch against ranked SEC opponents. Four of those games are against teams still in the Top 10 ( Florida, So. Carolina, Texas A & M, Alabama) and Miss. St is still in the Top 25. We were due for a little let down. Then add on top of that Ole Miss is scrambling to make a bowl game, they are heated rivals with the Tigers, and Hugh Freeze is a good coach. Can you say upset special?

Any way you slice it, the Tigers are playing a winning brand of football and I don't see anything in the near term changing that. This senior class is the third in a row that has won at least 50 games in their career at LSU. The group of redshirt sophomores through true freshman will have a solid chance to win 57 - 60 games over their 5 years which would extend the streak to 6 consecutive senior classes to win 50+ games.

I like what I see in the program this can be credited to Les Miles and his relationship with the players. This was never more evidenced than in his emotional press conference after the game on senior day last night. The players know he is their for them and they win for him. They also recruit for him and this year's upcoming class of recruits is one of his best. To watch the rant and witness the passion.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRXP5Bf8KFs

It is a great time to be a Tiger!