I wanted to make these comments a few days ago, but life got in the way during the week. High School football is wrapping up and the playoffs are right around the corner so time is short. Anyway here goes;
After watching a full day of college football last weekend a few things really jumped out at me.
Braxton Miller is really, really good. If he were not on an ineligible team (Ohio State) he would get a great deal more hype for Heisman Trophy.
Old Man football is alive and well. Just ask Mizzou. Let us list just a few teams playing this style of ball. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, So. Carolina, Kansas St., and Notre Dame.
Auburn is a bad football team but I don't put all of the blame on the coaches. there is something going on there internally that we don't know anything about. There is a cancer within the ranks that is causing the lack of effort problem. I believe that the identification of the problem will lead to the solution. That will determine whether or not Chizik will be back. My solution is to start the freshman QB and any other young player willing to give 100% each and every down regardless of experience level. Changing the attitude of the program is paramount to turning it all around.
Tennessee is a better football team than they were four years ago but hey are not a good team yet. I would give Dooley more time but the (unrealistic, ungrateful) fans probably will not. Let's be real about recruiting the states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Western Carolinas, and Virginia. They are going to need to expand to compete but he is doing that.
Finally, thank goodness for November. The leaves are turning, we had a cold front go through, and the race is on for a shot and the trophy. There are some great games coming starting with today so sit back and enjoy. I know I will.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Friday, November 2, 2012
Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.
First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5. Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.
For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory. Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.
The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on. The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested. The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.
Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.
But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.
I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.
LSU 21 - Alabama 13
Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.
For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory. Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.
The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on. The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested. The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.
Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.
But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.
I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.
LSU 21 - Alabama 13
Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Updating Coach's record
Last week (week 9) coach went 12-8 on his picks. Not as great as week 8 but still a winning record.
That brings his overall record to 26-9. That's an amazing 74% winning percentage.
The week 10 picks are already posted, so don't forget to check them out.
That brings his overall record to 26-9. That's an amazing 74% winning percentage.
The week 10 picks are already posted, so don't forget to check them out.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
What did we learn this weekend (10/28/12)?
WOW, we could label this past weekend as "Turnover and Play Dead". We started with eleven undefeated teams and finished with five. The teams that lost lead the day with turnovers and not just one or two but to the tune of four or more. Rutgers, Ohio, Florida, and Oregon State each had four plus and did every conceivable way to give the football game away. Then there were the teams that just played dead, Auburn and Colorado. I know you're saying that Oregon and Texas A&M have such potent offenses that what could we expect. Well have about show a little heart and make a tackle when the opportunity presents itself.
Let's quickly take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of this past weekend's games.
The Good
1. Alabama, Kansas State, and Notre Dame can play defense with anybody and then pound on your
defense until you wear out.
2. Colin Klein and A J McCarron are the two best QB's in football right now and could make any
other team better (except maybe Colorado).
3. Kansas St, Boise St, and SMU are locks against the spread each week simply because they are
very well coached on the offensive side of the ball and don't play any SEC defenses.
4. Braxton Miller is the real deal. He won that game versus Penn State almost single handed.
The Bad
1. The BIG TEN without Ohio State. Michigan State over Wisconsin (which will win the leaders
division) and Nebraska which beat Michigan (without D. Robinson) was the highlight of the
day. Northwestern can jump out to a fast start in each game but can't finish. It will not matter
which team comes out of the league to play in the Rose Bowl we are talking blow out versus
Oregon.
2. South Carolina defense is not all that. Clowney is good but containable and the backend just
does not get it done. Tennessee moved at will on them and even LSU controlled the ball.
3. Key football matchups with over 200 yards combined in penalties. Take a look at the teams
that are successful, they don't have more that three to five total penalties per game and they
are usually the five yard variety.
The Ugly
1. Teams that have already packed it in for the year. I find it interesting when the starters can
not make a play but the hungry freshmen and sophomores will fly around the field and
at least make it look respectable. You can insert your own team here as an example, there
were several this past weekend.
2. Now on a more somber note, the ugliest thing I saw in a game was a good person and great
athlete was seriously injured and could quite possibly have it end his career. I am sure many
of you will join me in wishing Marcus Lattimore all the best and hope for him to make a
full recovery. I have been watching football for a long time and that was by far the most
gruesome injury that I can remember. I realize that this does not compare to a spinal cord
injury and I don't mean to minimize those in any way what so ever. But I just hope he can
make back from yesterday unfortunate injury.
Let's quickly take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of this past weekend's games.
The Good
1. Alabama, Kansas State, and Notre Dame can play defense with anybody and then pound on your
defense until you wear out.
2. Colin Klein and A J McCarron are the two best QB's in football right now and could make any
other team better (except maybe Colorado).
3. Kansas St, Boise St, and SMU are locks against the spread each week simply because they are
very well coached on the offensive side of the ball and don't play any SEC defenses.
4. Braxton Miller is the real deal. He won that game versus Penn State almost single handed.
The Bad
1. The BIG TEN without Ohio State. Michigan State over Wisconsin (which will win the leaders
division) and Nebraska which beat Michigan (without D. Robinson) was the highlight of the
day. Northwestern can jump out to a fast start in each game but can't finish. It will not matter
which team comes out of the league to play in the Rose Bowl we are talking blow out versus
Oregon.
2. South Carolina defense is not all that. Clowney is good but containable and the backend just
does not get it done. Tennessee moved at will on them and even LSU controlled the ball.
3. Key football matchups with over 200 yards combined in penalties. Take a look at the teams
that are successful, they don't have more that three to five total penalties per game and they
are usually the five yard variety.
The Ugly
1. Teams that have already packed it in for the year. I find it interesting when the starters can
not make a play but the hungry freshmen and sophomores will fly around the field and
at least make it look respectable. You can insert your own team here as an example, there
were several this past weekend.
2. Now on a more somber note, the ugliest thing I saw in a game was a good person and great
athlete was seriously injured and could quite possibly have it end his career. I am sure many
of you will join me in wishing Marcus Lattimore all the best and hope for him to make a
full recovery. I have been watching football for a long time and that was by far the most
gruesome injury that I can remember. I realize that this does not compare to a spinal cord
injury and I don't mean to minimize those in any way what so ever. But I just hope he can
make back from yesterday unfortunate injury.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Coach Bourque's week 10 picks
We are going to try something a little different this week. Instead of an email sent to Kenny for him to post, I am going to write the post myself. So if this changes the success rate I have enjoyed so far, then I will revert back to the old fashion way of making my locks of the week. So here goes;
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Locks of the week
1. Ga. Tech by 7 1/2 over MARYLAND.
Let's face it, when you have to start a fifth string true freshman QB for his first game, that usually spells disaster. When that 5th string QB is really a middle linebacker, now that is really really bad. Maryland has this problem and then you compound that problem with a very weak run game, I don't see many points coming their way.
2. UTAH ST. by 26 1/2 over Texas St.
I don't know if an explanation is truly needed here but I will provide one. Texas St has recently moved up to FBS and is working to establish themselves. Utah St is scoring points at will and they are a blistering 7 - 0 ATS.
3. Penn St. by 3 1/2 over PURDUE
Coach O'Brien is the difference here and I believe that it is worth 3 1/2 points. Penn St is a more disciplined and consistent team than Purdue. Don't let last week Ohio State loss fool you, Braxton Miller is really good. Purdue does not have a Miller on their team.
4. NO. ILLINOIS by 35 1/2 over Massachusetts
Man that is a lot of points to give a team but U Mass just gave up 49 to Vandy while playing on the road. No. Ill is better than Vandy so look for this one to a solid blow out.
5. N.C. ST. by 11 1/2 over Virginia
Mike Glennon rank the bell for 42 against UNC last week. Virginia's defense is not a tar heel equivalent and the offense does not score much at all. The wolfpack are fighting for a bowl bid and the Cavs are 0 - 7 ATS this season.
6. Arkansas St by 4 1/2 over NO. TEXAS ST.
Ark St is leading the Sun Belt and Gus Malzahn has the offense rolling. No Texas is no match for fine tuned spread passing attack.
7. FLORIDA by 16 1/2 over Missouri
This point spread kind of scares me but I look for Muschamp to get the gators back on track and take care of the ball this week. Mizzou does not stop the run nor do they protect the QB very well. This plays right into Florida wheel house.
8. Ole Miss getting 13 1/2 from GEORGIA
Can you say trap game? Ole Miss is playing like they are relevant and I think they will be over looked by the bulldogs. Don't look for the Rebels to win but they will cover.
9. MIAMI getting 2 1/2 from Virginia Tech
VT is 0 - 4 on the road, Coach Golden has the swagger coming back at the U. This one looks like a winner and getting points.
10. FRESNO ST. by 33 1/2 over Hawaii
This is the first time I remember Hawaii traveling anywhere. They appear to be a bad road team they leave their defense at home when they travel. Look for a scoring fest early and often from Fresno St.
Other to be considered for almost locks
Troy getting 18 1/2 from TENNESSEE
MINNESOTA getting 9 1/2 from Michigan
Vandy by 7 1/2 over KENTUCKY
TEXAS TECH by 7 1/2 Texas
KANSAS ST by 8 1/2 over Oklahoma St
KENT ST by 21 1/2 over Akron
Florida International by 4 1/2 over SOUTH ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI ST. getting 6 1/2 from Texas A & M
EAST CAROLINA getting 3 1/2 from Houston
Pittsburgh getting 16 1/2 from NOTRE DAME
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Locks of the week
1. Ga. Tech by 7 1/2 over MARYLAND.
Let's face it, when you have to start a fifth string true freshman QB for his first game, that usually spells disaster. When that 5th string QB is really a middle linebacker, now that is really really bad. Maryland has this problem and then you compound that problem with a very weak run game, I don't see many points coming their way.
2. UTAH ST. by 26 1/2 over Texas St.
I don't know if an explanation is truly needed here but I will provide one. Texas St has recently moved up to FBS and is working to establish themselves. Utah St is scoring points at will and they are a blistering 7 - 0 ATS.
3. Penn St. by 3 1/2 over PURDUE
Coach O'Brien is the difference here and I believe that it is worth 3 1/2 points. Penn St is a more disciplined and consistent team than Purdue. Don't let last week Ohio State loss fool you, Braxton Miller is really good. Purdue does not have a Miller on their team.
4. NO. ILLINOIS by 35 1/2 over Massachusetts
Man that is a lot of points to give a team but U Mass just gave up 49 to Vandy while playing on the road. No. Ill is better than Vandy so look for this one to a solid blow out.
5. N.C. ST. by 11 1/2 over Virginia
Mike Glennon rank the bell for 42 against UNC last week. Virginia's defense is not a tar heel equivalent and the offense does not score much at all. The wolfpack are fighting for a bowl bid and the Cavs are 0 - 7 ATS this season.
6. Arkansas St by 4 1/2 over NO. TEXAS ST.
Ark St is leading the Sun Belt and Gus Malzahn has the offense rolling. No Texas is no match for fine tuned spread passing attack.
7. FLORIDA by 16 1/2 over Missouri
This point spread kind of scares me but I look for Muschamp to get the gators back on track and take care of the ball this week. Mizzou does not stop the run nor do they protect the QB very well. This plays right into Florida wheel house.
8. Ole Miss getting 13 1/2 from GEORGIA
Can you say trap game? Ole Miss is playing like they are relevant and I think they will be over looked by the bulldogs. Don't look for the Rebels to win but they will cover.
9. MIAMI getting 2 1/2 from Virginia Tech
VT is 0 - 4 on the road, Coach Golden has the swagger coming back at the U. This one looks like a winner and getting points.
10. FRESNO ST. by 33 1/2 over Hawaii
This is the first time I remember Hawaii traveling anywhere. They appear to be a bad road team they leave their defense at home when they travel. Look for a scoring fest early and often from Fresno St.
Other to be considered for almost locks
Troy getting 18 1/2 from TENNESSEE
MINNESOTA getting 9 1/2 from Michigan
Vandy by 7 1/2 over KENTUCKY
TEXAS TECH by 7 1/2 Texas
KANSAS ST by 8 1/2 over Oklahoma St
KENT ST by 21 1/2 over Akron
Florida International by 4 1/2 over SOUTH ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI ST. getting 6 1/2 from Texas A & M
EAST CAROLINA getting 3 1/2 from Houston
Pittsburgh getting 16 1/2 from NOTRE DAME
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