First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5. Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.
For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory. Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.
The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on. The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested. The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.
Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.
But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.
I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.
LSU 21 - Alabama 13
Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.
For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory. Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.
The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on. The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested. The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.
Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.
But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.
I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.
LSU 21 - Alabama 13
Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment