The spreads got me last week. Vegas has really settled in on this season and they are well on the way to recovering all of their early seasons misfortune. I finished 11 - 9 ATS but 17 - 3 on the winners straight up. Some of the games were last minute spread losers such as Maryland scoring with less than a minute versus FSU, NC ST late versus Clemson. Also there were some close calls such as Boise St 1/2 point short and Middle Tenn St 1 1/2 short. That was the difference in a 15 - 5 instead of 11 - 9. YTD my record is 59 - 36 ATS which is 62% winners which is not bad for ol' amateur like me.
Well here we go with this weeks picks.
1. Notre Dame over USC by 6 1/2 -- Too many things going right for the Irish and wrong for the Trojans to ignore this one. Barley is out and a redshirt freshman is in for USC going against one of the best defenses in the country.
2. CLEMSON over So. Carolina by 3 1/2 -- This hurts my heart to pick against the SEC, but at home with the offensive weapons they have and the Gamecocks defense hurting no choice.
3. La Monroe over FLA INTL by 5 1/2 -- Too much offense versus an average Sun Belt defense.
4. Stanford over UCLA by 1/2 -- Before last week I would have taken the Bruins and there offense. Standford proved that a solid, disciplined defense can stop those wide out spread offenses by keeping them contained where they can make the mistakes. This game means too much to Standford and not enough to UCLA for a trip to the PAC 12 championship game.
5. SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 4 1/2 -- This was a tough one to call but the Spartans have been solid ATS this year and they are winning as well. I am taking them since the Bulldogs have to travel to Calif.
6. Rutgers getting 1 1/2 from PITT -- Two reasons to pick the Scarlett Knights, 1) they are better and play consistent football and need to position themselves for a BCS Bowl Bid atop the Big East and 2) they just got accepted into the BIG 10. Both of theses are motivators that should easily overcome any home field advantage that PITT might get early in the game.
7. MEMPHIS over So. Miss by 4 1/2 -- It is hard to believe that Memphis is actually better than another team in the Conf. USA but So. Miss is really bad at 0 - 11 but on the road they are going to finish 0 - 12.
8. BAYLOR over Texas Tech by 2 1/2 -- Tuberville's tirade on the sideline two weeks ago will still have an effect on the team overall and Baylor's big win at home last week will carry over into this week. Look for the Bears to play well at home and win this one by 7+.
9. FSU over Fla by 5 1/2 -- The Gator offense is struggling and the Seminole defense is not. This will make for a long day for Muschamp and Driskel leading to a rather low scoring but one sided win for Jimbo.
10. PURDUE over Indiana by 5 1/2 -- Purdue has played well this season not by winning but in covering the spread. Let's keep the ball rolling.
10 Others to Consider
EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 4 1/2
West Virginia over IOWA ST by 1/2
ARIZONA over Arizona St by 2 1/2
Michigan getting 4 1/2 from OHIO ST
Tulsa over SMU by 4 1/2
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO getting 1 1/2 from Texas St
PENN ST over Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Rice getting 1 1/2 from UTEP
Unlv over HAWAII by 6 1/2
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 2 1/2
The Big Boy Games
TEXAS over Tcu by 8 1/2
ARKANSAS getting 12 1/2 from Lsu
Wash over WASH ST by 10 1/2
CINN over So. Fla by 12 1/2
Virginia getting 10 1/2 from VIR TECH
Mich St over MINNESOTA by 7 1/2
Okla St getting 8 1/2 from OKLA
ALA over Auburn by 31 1/2
NC ST over Boston College by 13 1/2
LOUISVILLE over UConn 12 1/2
Good luck and may the spread be with you.
Coach
No comments:
Post a Comment