Coach's Locks for Week 11

Well I am ready to beat the spread this week with 10 outstanding picks that are sure to make everyone happy. Just to recap last weekend, I finished 13 - 7 on the top twenty games and 31 - 19 on the best 50 games. I was really let down by some very lethargic performances (Florida, NC St, Ole Miss, and TTU) but such is the life of those of us following college football played by 19 - 22 year old young men. Oh well, here we go with renewed enthusiasm for a new slate of contests.

Home Team in CAPS

1.     Miami getting 1/2 from VIRGINIA

Al Golden has them rolling along with an eye on the ACC Championship game, making a bowl game, the defense is playing much better and the offense has stopped turning it over.

2.     Pitt over UCONN by 3 1/2

Tino Sunseri is on fire. Over the last 7 games he has completed over 70% of his passes with only 1 int. Ray Graham appears to be back at 100% based on his game against Notre Dame. UConn doesn't score much and is winless in the Big East.

3.     ARKANSAS ST over La. Monroe by 6 1/2

Colton Browning (QB for La. Monroe) is injured and is questionable for the game on Thursday night. Without this playmaker on offense, I don't think the Warhawks can keep up with Gus Malzahn's high flying scoring machine.

4.     Minnesota over ILLINOIS by 3 1/2

There is a certain attitude within the Golden Gopher program that is that of a winner. The Illini do not have that same winning approach. I believe this will be a close game with the visiting team taking the game by 7.

5.     Oregon over CAL by 27 1/2

I know that 27 1/2 is a lot of points and Oregon is due for a let down and Cal has played them tough over the last several years. But the CAL team is really beat up with injuries, their coach is on the hot seat, and they are all but eliminated from bowl invitation possibilities. Then throw on top of that the fact that Oregon is looking for style points and they are just flat out good, I think they will cover.

6.     CLEMSON over Maryland by 30 1/2

Well if you think 27 1/2 is a lot to cover this will might scare you a little. But don't worry too much, I just heard that Maryland is starting the hot-dog vendor at QB this week and the woeful performance last week of the freshman middle linebacker. They only scored 13 against a weak Georgia Tech defense. The tiger defense is much better than GT. We all know that Clemson will run it up at home on anybody.

7.     Marshall over UAB by 2 1/2

This is one of those gotta feeling games. Marshall has been high flying of late and UAB just had some measure of success over So. Miss coming from behind to win 26 - 19. So the pressure is off to win a conference game and I believe they will return to the losing ways.

8.     SMU over So. Miss by 12 1/2

SMU averages 35 ppg on offense while So. Miss gives up 40 ppg. So. Miss scores 20 ppg and SMU gives up 25. Those numbers tell me the spread will be covered. Then add in the fact that SMU is 4 - 1 ATS at home and So Miss is 1 - 3 ATS on the road, this is one of my locks.

9.     Fresno St over NEVADA by 2 1/2

Both teams are scoring a lot of points and Fresno St is leading the conference so momentum is on their side. They are 4-1 ATS on the road while Nevada is 0 -4 ATS at home. Look for a 10+ point win for Fresno.

10.    NEBRASKA over Penn St. by 6 1/2

Taylor Martinez is playing much better and taking care of the ball. The Cornhuskers play very good pass defense that will slow down the Penn St offense significantly. Penn  St does not run the ball very well at all and this could leave their defense on the field too much making this a 4th quarter game where Nebraska wins by two TD's.

Other games I like

Tulane over MEMPHIS by 1 1/2
LSU over Miss St by 13 1/2
NO. CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 9 1/2
La. Tech over TEXAS ST by 19 1/2
San Jose St over NEW MEXICO ST by 22 1/2
OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 20 1/2
ucla over WASH ST by 14 1/2
ALABAMA over Texas A & M by 13 1/2
NEW MEXICO  getting 1/2 from Wyoming
So Alabama getting 9 1/2 from NORTH TEXAS

Look for updates later this week as I get more research done.

Good luck and may the spread be with you,

Coach Bourque

  

Short and Snappy

I wanted to make these comments a few days ago, but life got in the way during the week. High School football is wrapping up and the playoffs are right around the corner so time is short. Anyway here goes;

After watching a full day of college football last weekend a few things really jumped out at me.

Braxton Miller is really, really good. If he were not on an ineligible team (Ohio State) he would get a great deal more hype for Heisman Trophy.

Old Man football is alive and well. Just ask Mizzou. Let us list just a few teams playing this style of ball. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, So. Carolina, Kansas St., and Notre Dame.

Auburn is a bad football team but I don't put all of the blame on the coaches. there is something going on there internally that we don't know anything about. There is a cancer within the ranks that is causing the lack of effort problem. I believe that the identification of the problem will lead to the solution. That will determine whether or not Chizik will be back. My solution is to start the freshman QB and any other young player willing to give 100% each and every down regardless of experience level. Changing the attitude of the program is paramount to turning it all around.

Tennessee is a better football team than they were four years ago but hey are not a good team yet. I would give Dooley more time but the (unrealistic, ungrateful) fans probably will not. Let's be real about recruiting the states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Western Carolinas, and Virginia. They are going to need to expand to compete but he is doing that.

Finally, thank goodness for November. The leaves are turning, we had a cold front go through, and the race is on for a shot and the trophy. There are some great games coming starting with today so sit back and enjoy. I know I will.

Some other good reads for the LSU/Alabama game

Spotlight on Baton Rouge

What needs to happen for LSU Alabama title game rematch

ESPN did you know

Can BCS history predict the future?

Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.

Updating Coach's record

Last week (week 9) coach went 12-8 on his picks. Not as great as week 8 but still a winning record.

That brings his overall record to 26-9.  That's an amazing 74% winning percentage.

The week 10 picks are already posted, so don't forget to check them out.

What did we learn this weekend (10/28/12)?

WOW, we could label this past weekend as "Turnover and Play Dead". We started with eleven undefeated teams and finished with five. The teams that lost lead the day with turnovers and not just one or two but to the tune of four or more. Rutgers, Ohio, Florida, and Oregon State each had four plus and did every conceivable way to give the football game away. Then there were the teams that just played dead, Auburn and Colorado. I know you're saying that Oregon and Texas A&M have such potent offenses that what could we expect. Well have about show a little heart and make a tackle when the opportunity presents itself.

Let's quickly take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of this past weekend's games.

The Good

1.   Alabama, Kansas State, and Notre Dame can play defense with anybody and then pound on your
          defense until you wear out.

2.   Colin Klein and A J McCarron are the two best QB's in football right now and could make any
          other team better (except maybe Colorado).

3.   Kansas St, Boise St, and SMU are locks against the spread each week simply because they are
          very well coached on the offensive side of the ball and don't play any SEC defenses.

4.   Braxton Miller is the real deal. He won that game versus Penn State almost single handed.

The Bad

1.   The BIG TEN without Ohio State. Michigan State over Wisconsin (which will win the leaders
          division) and Nebraska which beat Michigan (without D. Robinson) was the highlight of the
          day. Northwestern can jump out to a fast start in each game but can't finish. It will not matter
          which team comes out of the league to play in the Rose Bowl we are talking blow out versus
          Oregon.

2.   South Carolina defense is not all that. Clowney is good but containable and the backend just
          does not get it done. Tennessee moved at will on them and even LSU controlled the ball.

3.   Key football matchups with over 200 yards combined in penalties. Take a look at the teams
          that are successful, they don't have more that three to five total penalties per game and they
          are usually the five yard variety.

The Ugly

1.   Teams that have already packed it in for the year. I find it interesting when the starters can
          not make a play but the hungry freshmen and sophomores will fly around the field and
          at least make it look respectable. You can insert your own team here as an example, there
          were several this past weekend.

2.   Now on a more somber note, the ugliest thing I saw in a game was a good person and great
          athlete was seriously injured and could quite possibly have it end his career. I am sure many
          of you will join me in wishing Marcus Lattimore all the best and hope for him to make a
          full recovery. I have been watching football for a long time and that was by far the most
          gruesome injury that I can remember. I realize that this does not compare to a spinal cord
          injury and I don't mean to minimize those in any way what so ever. But I just hope he can
          make back from yesterday unfortunate injury.

Coach Bourque's week 10 picks

We are going to try something a little different this week. Instead of an email sent to Kenny for him to post, I am going to write the post myself.  So if this changes the success rate I have enjoyed so far, then I will revert back to the old fashion way of making my locks of the week. So here goes;

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Locks of the week

1.    Ga. Tech by 7 1/2 over MARYLAND.

Let's face it, when you have to start a fifth string true freshman QB for his first game, that usually   spells disaster. When that 5th string QB is really a middle linebacker, now that is really really bad. Maryland has this problem and then you compound that problem with a very weak run game, I don't see many points coming their way.

2.    UTAH ST. by 26 1/2 over Texas St.

I don't know if an explanation is truly needed here but I will provide one. Texas St has recently moved up to FBS and is working to establish themselves. Utah St is scoring points at will and they are a blistering 7 - 0 ATS.

3.    Penn St. by 3 1/2 over PURDUE

Coach O'Brien is the difference here and I believe that it is worth 3 1/2 points. Penn St is a more disciplined and consistent team than Purdue. Don't let last week Ohio State loss fool you, Braxton Miller is really good. Purdue does not have a Miller on their team.

4.    NO. ILLINOIS by 35 1/2 over Massachusetts

Man that is a lot of points to give a team but U Mass just gave up 49 to Vandy while playing on the road. No. Ill is better than Vandy so look for this one to a solid blow out.

5.    N.C. ST. by 11 1/2 over Virginia

Mike Glennon rank the bell for 42 against UNC last week. Virginia's defense is not a tar heel equivalent and the offense does not score much at all. The wolfpack are fighting for a bowl bid and the Cavs are 0 - 7 ATS this season.

6.    Arkansas St by 4 1/2 over NO. TEXAS ST.

Ark St is leading the Sun Belt and Gus Malzahn has the offense rolling. No Texas is no match for     fine tuned spread passing attack.

7.    FLORIDA by 16 1/2 over Missouri

This point spread kind of scares me but I look for Muschamp to get the gators back on track and take care of the ball this week. Mizzou does not stop the run nor do they protect the QB very well. This plays right into Florida wheel house.

8.    Ole Miss getting 13 1/2 from GEORGIA

Can you say trap game? Ole Miss is playing like they are relevant and I think they will be over looked by the bulldogs. Don't look for the Rebels to win but they will cover.

9.    MIAMI getting 2 1/2 from Virginia Tech

VT is 0 - 4 on the road, Coach Golden has the swagger coming back at the U. This one looks like a winner and getting points.

10.  FRESNO ST. by 33 1/2 over Hawaii

This is the first time I remember Hawaii traveling anywhere. They appear to be a bad road team they leave their defense at home when they travel. Look for a scoring fest early and often from Fresno St.

Other to be considered for almost locks

Troy getting 18 1/2 from TENNESSEE
MINNESOTA getting 9 1/2 from Michigan
Vandy by 7 1/2 over KENTUCKY
TEXAS TECH by 7 1/2 Texas
KANSAS ST by 8 1/2 over Oklahoma St
KENT ST by 21 1/2 over Akron
Florida International by 4 1/2 over SOUTH ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI ST. getting 6 1/2 from Texas A & M
EAST CAROLINA getting 3 1/2 from Houston
Pittsburgh getting 16 1/2 from NOTRE DAME