Coach's Week 12 Locks

I took it on the chin last week finishing 7 - 3 on the top 10 but going 2 - 8 on the next 10 to finish 9 - 11 overall. This brings my overall record ATS for the season to 48 - 27 for a 64% winning margin. This weeks games look to be every bit as challenging and the simple fact that we are playing in November and with rivalry games coming up, anything can happen. So here we go;

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

1) Kansas St over BAYLOR by 11 1/2 - KSU has been amazing against the spread and Collin Klein is back to full strength health wise. Look for a Bill Synder team to stay focused on the task at hand to secure victory.

 

2) CLEMSON over No. Car. St by 17 1/2 - Clemson is clicking on all cylinders, playing at home, and still trying to reach a BCS bowl therefore needing all of the style points they can muster/

3) Wash. over COLORADO by 20 1/2 - This can be a risky one as none of knows when Colorado may actually show up and play a game. But until that happens I am going with the trend.

 

4) Okla over WVU by 10 1/2 - Same tune second verse, until WVU shows they are going to play some defense, I don't see any reason to think any number of points to too many for the opponent to overcome.

 

5) Ark St over TROY by 3 1/2 - Did you see that game last week versus La Monroe. WOW now that is a creative, explosive offense. Troy will not be able to match them scoring. Malzahn can match play calling with anyone and should not have any trouble here.

6) Northwestern getting 6 1/2 from MICHIGAN ST - The Wildcats will cover the spread but probably not win the game. In fact the Spartans typically do not cover. This one will come down to the last drive and a field goal. Take the points.

7) MIAMI over So. Fla by 6 1/2 - The Hurricanes missed a cover last week by 1. Should not have the problem this week with a very inept offense of USF.

 

8) BOISE ST over Col St by 28 1/2 - Boise has hit it's stride offensively and the defense has turned it up a notch. they are not the Broncos of yesteryear but they are good enough to run the table against the Mountain West.

 

9) UCLA getting 3 1/2 from So. Cal - This is strictly a momentum play. UCLA in on the upswing from low expectations and USC is trending down from the mountain top. Mora has the process working and they are currently the second highest scoring team in the PAC 12.

 

10) LSU over Ole Miss by 19 1/2 - Call me a homer but Mettenberger and the play selection have finally found equilibrium. The porous defense from the Rebels will be no match for the athletes on the Tiger sideline. This is a rivalry game, one that will get out of hand early and often.

11) Mid Tenn St over SO ALA by 9 1/2 - The Blue Raiders have very quietly made their way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference while So. Ala. is working to survive their first full year in Div.I football. MTSU has a very good run game and strong defense with too many athletes.

 

12) CINCINNATI over Rutgers by 6 1/2 - The Scarlett Knights are overrated versus good offenses and the Bearcats can put some points on the board. Also Cinn is solid at home. If Kent St can put up 42 on Rutgers, so can Cincinnati.

 

A Few Bonus Picks

 

1) Smu over RICE by 3 1/2

2) Fsu over MARYLAND by 30 1/2

3) Ohio St getting 2 1/2 from WISCONSIN

4) Utah St over LA TECH by 3 1/2

5) Texas-San Antonio over IDAHO by 5 1/2

6) OKLAHOMA ST over Texas Tech by 10 1/2

7) Kent St getting 2 1/2 from BOWLING GREEN

8) MISS ST over Arkansas by 6 1/2

 

Well there it is folks, good luck and may the spread be with you.

 

Coach

 

 

Why your schedule matters.

Is it better to play the toughest part of your schedule early or late in the season? Let's discuss the pros and cons.

Pro - Injuries are a part of the game but the early part of the season has put less wear and tear on the players thus putting the team in a better position to weather the storm of tough competition.

Con - If you lose some starters early in the season due to those injuries, your team had better be deep with talent. Also the coaching staff should have a plan to develop young athletes.

Pro - By playing tough competition early, you can fine tune the offensive and defensive timing and strategies for success.

Con - If you are not prepared for the task, you can lose two and be out of the running for a championship.

Pro - It is better to lose one early and gain momentum throughout the season to finish strong leading to either a championship run or a strong recruiting year or an early start on next year.

Con - You could lose your team, but good coaches in good programs don't let this happen.

Bottom line, it is in this writers opinion that it is better to play a tough schedule throughout the season. This will keep the players focused on the task at hand each and every week. The coaches are challenged to develop the game plan to ensure success at every step. I believe that Texas A & M, through the virtue of a very difficult schedule to start the season, was better prepared to compete with Alabama than the inverse. The Tide took a significant beating in the previous week's contest and could not sustain the focus necessary to win the next game. In fact it will take a excellent coaching job by Saban and his staff to prepare them for the contest versus Georgia in Atlanta. The bulldogs are the hottest team in the SEC (outside of LSU) right now.

If your opinion is different or if you have something to add to the topic, please us a comment.

Thoughts on the Miss St game

If LSU plays like they did against Alabama then this game won't be close. In fact, if LSU plays like they did against Florida this game still won't be that close. Mississippi State has probably the most over inflated 7-2 record of any team out there. I know that LSU has played some easy opponents this year as well but they have also stood toe to toe with the good opponents. Mississippi State just got steam rolled by Alabama and Texas A&M.  LSU really just needs to maintain focus and execute this week. Don't look forward and don't look back on the schedule. If LSU does that then they win easily.

LSU 35 - Miss St 10

Coach's Locks for Week 11

Well I am ready to beat the spread this week with 10 outstanding picks that are sure to make everyone happy. Just to recap last weekend, I finished 13 - 7 on the top twenty games and 31 - 19 on the best 50 games. I was really let down by some very lethargic performances (Florida, NC St, Ole Miss, and TTU) but such is the life of those of us following college football played by 19 - 22 year old young men. Oh well, here we go with renewed enthusiasm for a new slate of contests.

Home Team in CAPS

1.     Miami getting 1/2 from VIRGINIA

Al Golden has them rolling along with an eye on the ACC Championship game, making a bowl game, the defense is playing much better and the offense has stopped turning it over.

2.     Pitt over UCONN by 3 1/2

Tino Sunseri is on fire. Over the last 7 games he has completed over 70% of his passes with only 1 int. Ray Graham appears to be back at 100% based on his game against Notre Dame. UConn doesn't score much and is winless in the Big East.

3.     ARKANSAS ST over La. Monroe by 6 1/2

Colton Browning (QB for La. Monroe) is injured and is questionable for the game on Thursday night. Without this playmaker on offense, I don't think the Warhawks can keep up with Gus Malzahn's high flying scoring machine.

4.     Minnesota over ILLINOIS by 3 1/2

There is a certain attitude within the Golden Gopher program that is that of a winner. The Illini do not have that same winning approach. I believe this will be a close game with the visiting team taking the game by 7.

5.     Oregon over CAL by 27 1/2

I know that 27 1/2 is a lot of points and Oregon is due for a let down and Cal has played them tough over the last several years. But the CAL team is really beat up with injuries, their coach is on the hot seat, and they are all but eliminated from bowl invitation possibilities. Then throw on top of that the fact that Oregon is looking for style points and they are just flat out good, I think they will cover.

6.     CLEMSON over Maryland by 30 1/2

Well if you think 27 1/2 is a lot to cover this will might scare you a little. But don't worry too much, I just heard that Maryland is starting the hot-dog vendor at QB this week and the woeful performance last week of the freshman middle linebacker. They only scored 13 against a weak Georgia Tech defense. The tiger defense is much better than GT. We all know that Clemson will run it up at home on anybody.

7.     Marshall over UAB by 2 1/2

This is one of those gotta feeling games. Marshall has been high flying of late and UAB just had some measure of success over So. Miss coming from behind to win 26 - 19. So the pressure is off to win a conference game and I believe they will return to the losing ways.

8.     SMU over So. Miss by 12 1/2

SMU averages 35 ppg on offense while So. Miss gives up 40 ppg. So. Miss scores 20 ppg and SMU gives up 25. Those numbers tell me the spread will be covered. Then add in the fact that SMU is 4 - 1 ATS at home and So Miss is 1 - 3 ATS on the road, this is one of my locks.

9.     Fresno St over NEVADA by 2 1/2

Both teams are scoring a lot of points and Fresno St is leading the conference so momentum is on their side. They are 4-1 ATS on the road while Nevada is 0 -4 ATS at home. Look for a 10+ point win for Fresno.

10.    NEBRASKA over Penn St. by 6 1/2

Taylor Martinez is playing much better and taking care of the ball. The Cornhuskers play very good pass defense that will slow down the Penn St offense significantly. Penn  St does not run the ball very well at all and this could leave their defense on the field too much making this a 4th quarter game where Nebraska wins by two TD's.

Other games I like

Tulane over MEMPHIS by 1 1/2
LSU over Miss St by 13 1/2
NO. CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 9 1/2
La. Tech over TEXAS ST by 19 1/2
San Jose St over NEW MEXICO ST by 22 1/2
OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 20 1/2
ucla over WASH ST by 14 1/2
ALABAMA over Texas A & M by 13 1/2
NEW MEXICO  getting 1/2 from Wyoming
So Alabama getting 9 1/2 from NORTH TEXAS

Look for updates later this week as I get more research done.

Good luck and may the spread be with you,

Coach Bourque

  

Short and Snappy

I wanted to make these comments a few days ago, but life got in the way during the week. High School football is wrapping up and the playoffs are right around the corner so time is short. Anyway here goes;

After watching a full day of college football last weekend a few things really jumped out at me.

Braxton Miller is really, really good. If he were not on an ineligible team (Ohio State) he would get a great deal more hype for Heisman Trophy.

Old Man football is alive and well. Just ask Mizzou. Let us list just a few teams playing this style of ball. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, So. Carolina, Kansas St., and Notre Dame.

Auburn is a bad football team but I don't put all of the blame on the coaches. there is something going on there internally that we don't know anything about. There is a cancer within the ranks that is causing the lack of effort problem. I believe that the identification of the problem will lead to the solution. That will determine whether or not Chizik will be back. My solution is to start the freshman QB and any other young player willing to give 100% each and every down regardless of experience level. Changing the attitude of the program is paramount to turning it all around.

Tennessee is a better football team than they were four years ago but hey are not a good team yet. I would give Dooley more time but the (unrealistic, ungrateful) fans probably will not. Let's be real about recruiting the states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Western Carolinas, and Virginia. They are going to need to expand to compete but he is doing that.

Finally, thank goodness for November. The leaves are turning, we had a cold front go through, and the race is on for a shot and the trophy. There are some great games coming starting with today so sit back and enjoy. I know I will.

Some other good reads for the LSU/Alabama game

Spotlight on Baton Rouge

What needs to happen for LSU Alabama title game rematch

ESPN did you know

Can BCS history predict the future?

Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.