USC with Kiffen is bad

Georgia Tech 21 - So. Cal 7

That score says it all but in case you are not aware how bad this really is, let me enlighten you.

1.  This is the same GT team that Georgia crushed by 32 points (42 - 10)

2.  Lost to Middle Tennessee 49 - 28 (I am sure that MTSU has a much better offense than USC).

3.  The only team that GT beat with a winning record (before today) was UNC 68 - 50.

4.  GT lost to BYU 41 - 17. BYU is not known as an offensive juggernaut.

5.  GT can not throw the football with any regularity, in fact they had less than 100 yards today.

So how hard can it be to prepare a team for a one dimensional offensive attack that tells you where they are going to run the football? I guess for the west coast cool guys, it seems to be very difficult.

Would somebody help me understand how this was a team in August that had more money bet on them to win a national championship than ever before. They were such a sure thing that even the savvy media experts polled selected USC overwhelmingly to stop the SEC dominance in the BSC. ESPN the magazine ran a front cover ad predicting the end of the reign for the SEC, so much for that wish.

Bottom line this was a pitiful effort today and a glimpse into the future of USC football for the next three years as the sanctions will only worsen the situation once the few players they have depart. USC's Pat Hayden (AD) should not accept another lackluster coaching performance from his staff. If he doesn't have a serious discussion with the head coach, the wrong message will be sent to an arrogant individual and also the remaining players. You can mark this down, the Trojans will not compete for a PAC 12 title for at least the next three years.

Good luck SC fans, you have a long road to travel without much of a leader to guide the program.

Coach's Bowl Locks

Sorry about the late post, but I am about to lay the most locked picks of all time on you. Well maybe in my own mind anyway. You will just have to take my word for the Arizona and Utah State picks, but I did have them before the games were played. Listed below you will find in order the games will be played, my picks for the bowl season. No point spreads will be used. My picks will be in red and my confidence number in blue. A confidence number of 1 is lowest and 35 is highest level. So here we go.

Bowl Game                    Favorite                     Underdog                    Date             Confidence No.

Idaho Potato                  Utah St                       Toledo                        12/15                  33
New Mexico                  Arizona                      Nevada                       12/15                  23
Poinsettia                       BYU                          San Diego St.             12/20                    7
Beef O'Brady's               UCF                           Ball St.                       12/21                   9
     Going with the dog here because I think the MAC is better than the Conf USA.
MAACO                        Boise St.                    Washington                12/22                  12
      Peterson over Sarkisian is the difference here.
New Orleans                  La Lafayette              East Carolina              12/22                 21
Hawaii                           Fresno St.                  SMU                           12/24                 31
Little Ceasars                West. Kentucky         Cent Mich                   12/26                   8
      Does anybody know who is coaching in this game?
Military                         San Jose St.                Bowling Green           12/27                 24
       The Spartans have been good for me all year long. So stay with them.
Holiday                          UCLA                       Baylor                         12/27                 10
Belk                                Cincinnati                 Duke                           12/27                   2
Meineke                         TexasTech                 Minnesota                  12/28                 34
Independence                 La Monroe                Ohio                           12/28                 14
           This is a home game for the Warhawks.
Russell Athletic             Virginia Tech            Rutgers                       12/28                   3
Pinstripe                         West Virgina            Syracuse                     12/29                 20
Fight Hunger                  Arizona St.               Navy                           12/29                 15
Armed Forces                 Air Force                  Rice                            12/29                 13
Buff Wild Wings           TCU                          Mich St.                      12/29                   6
Alamo                            Oregon St.                Texas                           12/29                   4
         Can anyone tell me which Longhorn team will show up for this one?
Music City                     Vandy                       NC ST.                        12/31                 28
Sun                                 USC                         Ga Tech                       12/31                 16
Chick-fil-A                     LSU                         Clemson                      12/31                 11
Liberty                           Tulsa                         Iowa St                        12/31                   5
Rose                               Stanford                    Wisconsin                   01/01                 30
Outback                         So. Carolina               Michigan                    01/01                 29
Orange                           FSU                           No. Illinois                  01/01                26
Capital One                   Georgia                      Nebraska                     01/01                18
Gator                             Miss St                       Northwestern              01/01                  1  
Sugar                             Florida                       Louisville                    01/02                27
Fiesta                            Oregon                       Kansas St                     01/03                32
Cotton                           Texas A & M              Oklahoma                    01/04                19
BBVA                           Ole Miss                     Pitt                               01/05                17
Go Daddy                     Arkansas St                 Kent St                        01/06                25
BCS NCG                     Alabama                     Notre Dame                 01/07                22

I have a lot of fun with the blog site picking winners this year and finishing the regular season at over 65% against the spread, it was a good year. I will post my results as we progress throughout the bowl season before we move on to our analysis of the recruiting season. Thanks for reading and I look forward to your comments.

Coach

Watching the New Mexico Bowl

I don't know about everyone else but I sure do miss SEC football right about now. The bad angles and tackling in this game is very frustrating to watch. It's led to lots of offense but without a big hit or great defensive play every now and then I find it monotonous. Basically whoever has the ball last should win. Definitely looking forward to some better teams and match ups.

Auburn gets their HC

Are you kidding me, Gus Malzahn?

So let me get this straight. Gus was the man but you let him get away last year when he ran the offense he says he is going to run with the quarterbacks he recruited that can not run the offense. He was the OC that brought in Frazier, Mosely and Trotter that proved to woefully inadequate to make decisions in the kind of fast paced offense that Gus wants to implement. I do like Jonathan Wallace as an athletic dual threat QB but it will remain to be seen how effective he will be in this defense-minded conference.

My best guess is the War Eaglers just hired themselves an 8 - 4 coach and that is assuming they find someone to resurrect the defense and teach some players to tackle.

Oh yea and BTW, who the heck do they think they are to make this announcement during prime time. Auburn is on the fast track to becoming an also-ran bottom half team in the SEC. They will have a very difficult time recruiting against Saban, Richt, Miles, and Muschamp with those men playing a pro-style game not the flash in the pan boys game.

College football season is quickly coming to an end.

We are almost in full bowl game mode. Because the season is nearing the end, I want to take this opportunity to make all viewers aware of follow button on the right hand side of the screen (while viewing the desktop version). All you have to do is input your email address (don't worry, it's hidden from us) and you will receive an email every time the site is updated. The reason for pointing this out is simple; with the off-season approaching there will be less frequent updates. If you follow you won't have to check every day only to be disappointed to find nothing new. So I strongly suggest following.

Bowl Predictions

Since the regular season is basically over and I will not be posting my Locks of the Week for games, I thought I would try my hand at placing teams in some of the upcoming bowl games. First I will pick the conference championship games then the BCS matchups and the remaining SEC bowl games.

Conference Championship Games

Big Ten  --  Wisconsin getting 3 from Nebraska in an upset

ACC       --  Florida St over Ga Tech by 14

PAC 12  --  Stanford over UCLA by 8

SEC       --  Georgia getting 7 from Alabama

Conf USA --  Tulsa over UCF by 1

MAC     --  Kent St getting 6 from No. ILL

BCS Bowl Game Matchup

NCG     --  Georgia vs Notre Dame

Sugar    --  Florida vs Oklahoma

Fiesta   --   Kansas St vs Oregon  ( this was the early season NCG )

Rose     --  Wisconsin vs Stanford  ( what a dog with two running teams )

Orange --  Florida St vs Kent St  (in a rule that Kent St finishes in top 16 and Big East doesn't)

Of course if the upsets I am picking don't materialize then I reserve the right to change my picks.

SEC Bowl Games

Capital One  --  Alabama vs Northwestern  (kinda let down for Bama)

Cotton          --  TAMU vs Texas ( the Cotton really wants this one )

Outback       --  So. Carolina vs Nebraska

Chick-fil-A  --  LSU vs Clemson ( two 10 - 2 tiger teams )

Gator           --  Miss St vs Michigan (could see alot of points in this one )

Music City  --  Ole Miss vs Virginia Tech

BBVA         --  Vandy vs Pitt

Let me know what you think and where I am off base. I look forward to your comments.

Notre Dame - 22 USC - 13

Just finished watching and I have a few thoughts.

1.   Notre Dame is not the best team in the country. In fact I am not sure they are even in the top 5. I know the media loves them at the TV ratings will love them with their fan base. I will take Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or Texas A & M versus the Irish any day and all day long. The USC defense is not very good at all with almost no depth, the offense is very inconsistent but still moved the ball well on the Irish famous "D". I may be wrong but this looks like another championship game that is not that close in the end and the 7th straight for the SEC.

2.   Max Witteg is going to be a very able replacement to Matt Barkley. He showed a lot of promise as a good QB.

3.   Don't ever pick the ACC teams over any good teams from another conference. I was foolish to believe the hype about Clemson and Florida State. Even Wake Forrest got pummeled by Vandy.

4.   While "Johnny Football" probably will not win the Heisman Trophy simply because he is a freshman (the AARP voters won't allow it). He is the real deal and his stats are as impressive as both Cam Newton and Tim Tebow during the years they won the trophy. Collin Klein has a chance next week to lock it up with an impressive performance against a confused Texas Longhorn defense.

5.   Alabama vs Georgia next week should be a great battle. Both teams look like they are hitting on all cylinders.

LSU vs Arkansas

There was a good reason why I chose the Hogs plus the spread. And now you know.It would be easy to complain about the Tigers but we should not expect anything different from this team in the 12th and final regular season game especially on the road. A 20 - 13 win is good and don't forget that any win on the road in the SEC, even Arkansas, is a tough chore. So I will take'em any way I can get'em.

Here are the highlights as I saw them from my couch in the watching room for sports;

1.   Mettenberger while certainly not his best effort was relatively effective when we needed him most. 200 plus yards, no interceptions.

2.   While the defense bent, it did not break, giving up only 13 points will win most games.

3.   The return game bailed us out again and made life a little easier on the offense.

One day we will look back on this season and realize how much the Tigers accomplished in 2012. There are two first time starters at cornerbacks that are going to get better and end up pretty good, probably next year. The team as a whole is young, gaining valuable experience that will provide valuable depth next year when all of the injured return as well as the academic casualties from earlier this year. I also see alot of good things to build on for the offense as well. Receivers got better, O-line got better, QB got better and the RB were good all year long. We also found a TE that can run routes and catch the ball.

Don't hang your heads Tiger fans, we will take our bowl bid (probably Cotton) and prepare well to finish the season with 11 wins and momentum heading into off-season workouts.

It is still a great time to be a Tiger fan.

Coach's Week 13 Locks

The spreads got me last week. Vegas has really settled in on this season and they are well on the way to recovering all of their early seasons misfortune. I finished 11 - 9 ATS but 17 - 3 on the winners straight up. Some of the games were last minute spread losers such as Maryland scoring with less than a minute versus FSU, NC ST late versus Clemson. Also there were some close calls such as Boise St 1/2 point short and Middle Tenn St 1 1/2 short. That was the difference in a 15 - 5 instead of 11 - 9. YTD my record is 59 - 36 ATS which is 62% winners which is not bad for ol' amateur like me.

Well here we go with this weeks picks.

1.     Notre Dame over USC by 6 1/2  --  Too many things going right for the Irish and wrong for the Trojans to ignore this one. Barley is out and a redshirt freshman is in for USC going against one of the best defenses in the country.

2.     CLEMSON over So. Carolina by 3 1/2  --  This hurts my heart to pick against the SEC, but at home with the offensive weapons they have and the Gamecocks defense hurting no choice.

3.     La Monroe over FLA INTL by 5 1/2  --  Too much offense versus an average Sun Belt defense.

4.     Stanford over UCLA by 1/2  --  Before last week I would have taken the Bruins and there offense. Standford proved that a solid, disciplined defense can stop those wide out spread offenses by keeping them contained where they can make the mistakes. This game means too much to Standford and not enough to UCLA for a trip to the PAC 12 championship game.

5.     SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 4 1/2  --  This was a tough one to call but the Spartans have been solid ATS this year and they are winning as well. I am taking them since the Bulldogs have to travel to Calif.

6.     Rutgers getting 1 1/2 from PITT  --  Two reasons to pick the Scarlett Knights, 1) they are better and play consistent football and need to position themselves for a BCS Bowl Bid atop the Big East and 2) they just got accepted into the BIG 10. Both of theses are motivators that should easily overcome any home field advantage that PITT might get early in the game.

7.     MEMPHIS over So. Miss by 4 1/2  --  It is hard to believe that Memphis is actually better than another team in the Conf. USA but So. Miss is really bad at 0 - 11 but on the road they are going to finish 0 - 12.

8.     BAYLOR over Texas Tech by 2 1/2  --  Tuberville's tirade on the sideline two weeks ago will still have an effect on the team overall and Baylor's big win at home last week will carry over into this week. Look for the Bears to play well at home and win this one by 7+.

9.     FSU over Fla by 5 1/2  --  The Gator offense is struggling and the Seminole defense is not. This will make for a long day for Muschamp and Driskel leading to a rather low scoring but one sided win for Jimbo.

10.   PURDUE over Indiana by 5 1/2  --  Purdue has played well this season not by winning but in covering the spread. Let's keep the ball rolling.

10 Others to Consider

EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 4 1/2
West Virginia over IOWA ST by 1/2
ARIZONA over Arizona St by 2 1/2
Michigan getting 4 1/2 from OHIO ST
Tulsa over SMU by 4 1/2
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO getting 1 1/2 from Texas St
PENN ST over Wisconsin by 2 1/2
Rice getting 1 1/2 from UTEP
Unlv over HAWAII by 6 1/2
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 2 1/2


The Big Boy Games

TEXAS over Tcu by 8 1/2
ARKANSAS getting 12 1/2 from Lsu
Wash over WASH ST by 10 1/2
CINN over So. Fla by 12 1/2
Virginia getting 10 1/2 from VIR TECH
Mich St over MINNESOTA by 7 1/2
Okla St getting 8 1/2 from OKLA
ALA over Auburn by 31 1/2
NC ST over Boston College by 13 1/2
LOUISVILLE over UConn 12 1/2

Good luck and may the spread be with you.
Coach

Can You Handle the Truth? There will be BCS Chaos

Bammers so you are really excited about the inevitable return trip to the BCS Championship game. Well chaos is about to reach right up and bite you on the butt. Chew on this scenario,

Notre Dame gets beat (bad) by a weak USC team. In fact they get embarrassed with all of the hype about preparing for the championship game that the media really wants. In fact they want it so bad they are almost proclaiming them the eventual winner. They drop to number 4 or 5 in the ranking.

Florida loses to FSU in a close one, probably 17 - 10 or 17 - 13 and drops to number 8.

Clemson beats So. Carolina and finishes at number 7.

Alabama beats Auburn handily but loses to Georgia and drops to number 6.

Kansas State loses to Texas and drops somewhere between 10 and 12.

Oregon loses to Oregon State drops to number 9.

UCLA beats Stanford then loses the Pac 12 Championship game to Stanford but it is too late for either team take up more than one BCS game for the PAC 12.

Oklahoma wins out over Ok State and TCU.

LSU beats Arkansas and sits back to watch it all unfold. Do you remember 2007? The dominoes fell just right in the final two weeks to put the Fightin Tigers in the game which they won.

So here it, LSU vs Ga in Miami. The media goes crazy with another all SEC championship game, Notre Dame goes to the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson, FSU versus Rutgers in the Orange, Stanford versus Nebraska in the Rose, Oklahoma versus Oregon in the Fiesta.

Now how is that for madness/chaos?

LSU Football

LSU - 41 and Ole Miss - 35

Does the final score tell the whole story? I don't think so because when playing in the SEC there is always more to the game than just the total number of points. Don't get me wrong, winning the game by scoring more points than your opponent is the ultimate judgement on how you played the game. It is always better to play poorly and win the game than play very well and lose. An example of the latter is the Alabama game where LSU outplayed the Tide the entire second half and took a lead into the final minutes only to have Bama out play them for the win.

Last night Ole Miss played even to actually a little better than LSU, but the playmakers saved the day for the Tigers. Now here is what may have caused this game to closer than many thought, The Tigers played a 5 game stretch against ranked SEC opponents. Four of those games are against teams still in the Top 10 ( Florida, So. Carolina, Texas A & M, Alabama) and Miss. St is still in the Top 25. We were due for a little let down. Then add on top of that Ole Miss is scrambling to make a bowl game, they are heated rivals with the Tigers, and Hugh Freeze is a good coach. Can you say upset special?

Any way you slice it, the Tigers are playing a winning brand of football and I don't see anything in the near term changing that. This senior class is the third in a row that has won at least 50 games in their career at LSU. The group of redshirt sophomores through true freshman will have a solid chance to win 57 - 60 games over their 5 years which would extend the streak to 6 consecutive senior classes to win 50+ games.

I like what I see in the program this can be credited to Les Miles and his relationship with the players. This was never more evidenced than in his emotional press conference after the game on senior day last night. The players know he is their for them and they win for him. They also recruit for him and this year's upcoming class of recruits is one of his best. To watch the rant and witness the passion.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRXP5Bf8KFs

It is a great time to be a Tiger!

Coach's Week 12 Locks

I took it on the chin last week finishing 7 - 3 on the top 10 but going 2 - 8 on the next 10 to finish 9 - 11 overall. This brings my overall record ATS for the season to 48 - 27 for a 64% winning margin. This weeks games look to be every bit as challenging and the simple fact that we are playing in November and with rivalry games coming up, anything can happen. So here we go;

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

1) Kansas St over BAYLOR by 11 1/2 - KSU has been amazing against the spread and Collin Klein is back to full strength health wise. Look for a Bill Synder team to stay focused on the task at hand to secure victory.

 

2) CLEMSON over No. Car. St by 17 1/2 - Clemson is clicking on all cylinders, playing at home, and still trying to reach a BCS bowl therefore needing all of the style points they can muster/

3) Wash. over COLORADO by 20 1/2 - This can be a risky one as none of knows when Colorado may actually show up and play a game. But until that happens I am going with the trend.

 

4) Okla over WVU by 10 1/2 - Same tune second verse, until WVU shows they are going to play some defense, I don't see any reason to think any number of points to too many for the opponent to overcome.

 

5) Ark St over TROY by 3 1/2 - Did you see that game last week versus La Monroe. WOW now that is a creative, explosive offense. Troy will not be able to match them scoring. Malzahn can match play calling with anyone and should not have any trouble here.

6) Northwestern getting 6 1/2 from MICHIGAN ST - The Wildcats will cover the spread but probably not win the game. In fact the Spartans typically do not cover. This one will come down to the last drive and a field goal. Take the points.

7) MIAMI over So. Fla by 6 1/2 - The Hurricanes missed a cover last week by 1. Should not have the problem this week with a very inept offense of USF.

 

8) BOISE ST over Col St by 28 1/2 - Boise has hit it's stride offensively and the defense has turned it up a notch. they are not the Broncos of yesteryear but they are good enough to run the table against the Mountain West.

 

9) UCLA getting 3 1/2 from So. Cal - This is strictly a momentum play. UCLA in on the upswing from low expectations and USC is trending down from the mountain top. Mora has the process working and they are currently the second highest scoring team in the PAC 12.

 

10) LSU over Ole Miss by 19 1/2 - Call me a homer but Mettenberger and the play selection have finally found equilibrium. The porous defense from the Rebels will be no match for the athletes on the Tiger sideline. This is a rivalry game, one that will get out of hand early and often.

11) Mid Tenn St over SO ALA by 9 1/2 - The Blue Raiders have very quietly made their way to the top of the Sun Belt Conference while So. Ala. is working to survive their first full year in Div.I football. MTSU has a very good run game and strong defense with too many athletes.

 

12) CINCINNATI over Rutgers by 6 1/2 - The Scarlett Knights are overrated versus good offenses and the Bearcats can put some points on the board. Also Cinn is solid at home. If Kent St can put up 42 on Rutgers, so can Cincinnati.

 

A Few Bonus Picks

 

1) Smu over RICE by 3 1/2

2) Fsu over MARYLAND by 30 1/2

3) Ohio St getting 2 1/2 from WISCONSIN

4) Utah St over LA TECH by 3 1/2

5) Texas-San Antonio over IDAHO by 5 1/2

6) OKLAHOMA ST over Texas Tech by 10 1/2

7) Kent St getting 2 1/2 from BOWLING GREEN

8) MISS ST over Arkansas by 6 1/2

 

Well there it is folks, good luck and may the spread be with you.

 

Coach

 

 

Why your schedule matters.

Is it better to play the toughest part of your schedule early or late in the season? Let's discuss the pros and cons.

Pro - Injuries are a part of the game but the early part of the season has put less wear and tear on the players thus putting the team in a better position to weather the storm of tough competition.

Con - If you lose some starters early in the season due to those injuries, your team had better be deep with talent. Also the coaching staff should have a plan to develop young athletes.

Pro - By playing tough competition early, you can fine tune the offensive and defensive timing and strategies for success.

Con - If you are not prepared for the task, you can lose two and be out of the running for a championship.

Pro - It is better to lose one early and gain momentum throughout the season to finish strong leading to either a championship run or a strong recruiting year or an early start on next year.

Con - You could lose your team, but good coaches in good programs don't let this happen.

Bottom line, it is in this writers opinion that it is better to play a tough schedule throughout the season. This will keep the players focused on the task at hand each and every week. The coaches are challenged to develop the game plan to ensure success at every step. I believe that Texas A & M, through the virtue of a very difficult schedule to start the season, was better prepared to compete with Alabama than the inverse. The Tide took a significant beating in the previous week's contest and could not sustain the focus necessary to win the next game. In fact it will take a excellent coaching job by Saban and his staff to prepare them for the contest versus Georgia in Atlanta. The bulldogs are the hottest team in the SEC (outside of LSU) right now.

If your opinion is different or if you have something to add to the topic, please us a comment.

Thoughts on the Miss St game

If LSU plays like they did against Alabama then this game won't be close. In fact, if LSU plays like they did against Florida this game still won't be that close. Mississippi State has probably the most over inflated 7-2 record of any team out there. I know that LSU has played some easy opponents this year as well but they have also stood toe to toe with the good opponents. Mississippi State just got steam rolled by Alabama and Texas A&M.  LSU really just needs to maintain focus and execute this week. Don't look forward and don't look back on the schedule. If LSU does that then they win easily.

LSU 35 - Miss St 10

Coach's Locks for Week 11

Well I am ready to beat the spread this week with 10 outstanding picks that are sure to make everyone happy. Just to recap last weekend, I finished 13 - 7 on the top twenty games and 31 - 19 on the best 50 games. I was really let down by some very lethargic performances (Florida, NC St, Ole Miss, and TTU) but such is the life of those of us following college football played by 19 - 22 year old young men. Oh well, here we go with renewed enthusiasm for a new slate of contests.

Home Team in CAPS

1.     Miami getting 1/2 from VIRGINIA

Al Golden has them rolling along with an eye on the ACC Championship game, making a bowl game, the defense is playing much better and the offense has stopped turning it over.

2.     Pitt over UCONN by 3 1/2

Tino Sunseri is on fire. Over the last 7 games he has completed over 70% of his passes with only 1 int. Ray Graham appears to be back at 100% based on his game against Notre Dame. UConn doesn't score much and is winless in the Big East.

3.     ARKANSAS ST over La. Monroe by 6 1/2

Colton Browning (QB for La. Monroe) is injured and is questionable for the game on Thursday night. Without this playmaker on offense, I don't think the Warhawks can keep up with Gus Malzahn's high flying scoring machine.

4.     Minnesota over ILLINOIS by 3 1/2

There is a certain attitude within the Golden Gopher program that is that of a winner. The Illini do not have that same winning approach. I believe this will be a close game with the visiting team taking the game by 7.

5.     Oregon over CAL by 27 1/2

I know that 27 1/2 is a lot of points and Oregon is due for a let down and Cal has played them tough over the last several years. But the CAL team is really beat up with injuries, their coach is on the hot seat, and they are all but eliminated from bowl invitation possibilities. Then throw on top of that the fact that Oregon is looking for style points and they are just flat out good, I think they will cover.

6.     CLEMSON over Maryland by 30 1/2

Well if you think 27 1/2 is a lot to cover this will might scare you a little. But don't worry too much, I just heard that Maryland is starting the hot-dog vendor at QB this week and the woeful performance last week of the freshman middle linebacker. They only scored 13 against a weak Georgia Tech defense. The tiger defense is much better than GT. We all know that Clemson will run it up at home on anybody.

7.     Marshall over UAB by 2 1/2

This is one of those gotta feeling games. Marshall has been high flying of late and UAB just had some measure of success over So. Miss coming from behind to win 26 - 19. So the pressure is off to win a conference game and I believe they will return to the losing ways.

8.     SMU over So. Miss by 12 1/2

SMU averages 35 ppg on offense while So. Miss gives up 40 ppg. So. Miss scores 20 ppg and SMU gives up 25. Those numbers tell me the spread will be covered. Then add in the fact that SMU is 4 - 1 ATS at home and So Miss is 1 - 3 ATS on the road, this is one of my locks.

9.     Fresno St over NEVADA by 2 1/2

Both teams are scoring a lot of points and Fresno St is leading the conference so momentum is on their side. They are 4-1 ATS on the road while Nevada is 0 -4 ATS at home. Look for a 10+ point win for Fresno.

10.    NEBRASKA over Penn St. by 6 1/2

Taylor Martinez is playing much better and taking care of the ball. The Cornhuskers play very good pass defense that will slow down the Penn St offense significantly. Penn  St does not run the ball very well at all and this could leave their defense on the field too much making this a 4th quarter game where Nebraska wins by two TD's.

Other games I like

Tulane over MEMPHIS by 1 1/2
LSU over Miss St by 13 1/2
NO. CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 9 1/2
La. Tech over TEXAS ST by 19 1/2
San Jose St over NEW MEXICO ST by 22 1/2
OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 20 1/2
ucla over WASH ST by 14 1/2
ALABAMA over Texas A & M by 13 1/2
NEW MEXICO  getting 1/2 from Wyoming
So Alabama getting 9 1/2 from NORTH TEXAS

Look for updates later this week as I get more research done.

Good luck and may the spread be with you,

Coach Bourque

  

Short and Snappy

I wanted to make these comments a few days ago, but life got in the way during the week. High School football is wrapping up and the playoffs are right around the corner so time is short. Anyway here goes;

After watching a full day of college football last weekend a few things really jumped out at me.

Braxton Miller is really, really good. If he were not on an ineligible team (Ohio State) he would get a great deal more hype for Heisman Trophy.

Old Man football is alive and well. Just ask Mizzou. Let us list just a few teams playing this style of ball. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, So. Carolina, Kansas St., and Notre Dame.

Auburn is a bad football team but I don't put all of the blame on the coaches. there is something going on there internally that we don't know anything about. There is a cancer within the ranks that is causing the lack of effort problem. I believe that the identification of the problem will lead to the solution. That will determine whether or not Chizik will be back. My solution is to start the freshman QB and any other young player willing to give 100% each and every down regardless of experience level. Changing the attitude of the program is paramount to turning it all around.

Tennessee is a better football team than they were four years ago but hey are not a good team yet. I would give Dooley more time but the (unrealistic, ungrateful) fans probably will not. Let's be real about recruiting the states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Western Carolinas, and Virginia. They are going to need to expand to compete but he is doing that.

Finally, thank goodness for November. The leaves are turning, we had a cold front go through, and the race is on for a shot and the trophy. There are some great games coming starting with today so sit back and enjoy. I know I will.

Some other good reads for the LSU/Alabama game

Spotlight on Baton Rouge

What needs to happen for LSU Alabama title game rematch

ESPN did you know

Can BCS history predict the future?

Some thoughts on the upcoming Bama game.

First off, I think this game will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. For LSU to be a 9-10 point underdog at home is a little ridiculous in my opinion. Especially for a night game. I'm sure by now everyone is aware of the impressive record Les Miles has at home for a night game. But for more examples of why that spread is too large, just look to recent history. 2008, one of the worst LSU football teams since the 90's. It took Alabama overtime to finally put away LSU. 2009, Alabama's championship team still struggled with a mediocre LSU football team. This has become a very heated rivalry game. And in these types of games, anything can happen. That's why I say to jump all over spreads of more than 6.5 - 7.5.  Seems like easy money to me. But enough about the spread, let's move on to the game itself.

For LSU to win this game, I think they need to play more disciplined football. They are getting way too many penalties per game, and a lot of these penalties are of the 10+ yardage variety. Not good for the field position battle. And speaking of field position battle, LSU will need the Brad Wing of old tomorrow night. And I'm not just talking about booming punts, because he's been kicking those routinely this year as well. What I'm talking about is the type of punt that goes 40-55 yards and checks up at the 5 yard line. The kind of punts that pin the opponent deep in their own territory.  Now aside from minimal to no penalties and pin point accuracy in the punting game the only other thing LSU will need to win is a decent 3rd down conversion rate. If LSU can pick up a couple first downs every possession then they will eventually win the field position battle which will result in points.

The reason for such simple keys to victory for LSU is easy, the defense. This defensive unit is far better than anything Alabama has faced all year and then some. The only team that remotely plays defense that Alabama has played so far is Mississippi State. And Moo St is only classified as a defense by numbers alone. Numbers that were racked up by playing against the likes of Jackson St., South Alabama, and so on.  The only real offense that they have faced is, well, Alabama. So needless to say Alabama has yet to be tested.  The front four of LSU will contain the run forcing Alabama into obvious passing down/distances. LSU for the season is allowing 1 yard per rush before contact. The SEC average is 2.4 yards before contact. Kevin Minter has a lot to do with that statistic. Between him and Anthony Johnson the Alabama run game will struggle to get started. And let's face it, McCarron is not a mobile quarterback so don't be surprised when the dynamic duo of Mingo and Montgomery have their ears pinned back going after him.

Having said all that, that same could be applied to Alabama's defense against LSU's offense. This could easily turn in to a punt-fest if both offenses have trouble converting on 3rd downs.

But it's a night game, in Death Valley. The crowd will be hysterical from start to finish. The pregame festivities I'm sure have already kicked off, and will only continue to pick up steam as game time approaches.

I'll take the home crowd advantage and say that LSU keeps the penalties down, picks up crucial third downs, and gets some great punting from Brad Wing.

LSU 21 - Alabama 13  

Also, AP #1 teams have faced a top-20 opponent on the road after a home win 9 times. They are 2-7. And yes that includes the Alabama loss to South Carolina two years ago. I like those numbers as well.

Updating Coach's record

Last week (week 9) coach went 12-8 on his picks. Not as great as week 8 but still a winning record.

That brings his overall record to 26-9.  That's an amazing 74% winning percentage.

The week 10 picks are already posted, so don't forget to check them out.

What did we learn this weekend (10/28/12)?

WOW, we could label this past weekend as "Turnover and Play Dead". We started with eleven undefeated teams and finished with five. The teams that lost lead the day with turnovers and not just one or two but to the tune of four or more. Rutgers, Ohio, Florida, and Oregon State each had four plus and did every conceivable way to give the football game away. Then there were the teams that just played dead, Auburn and Colorado. I know you're saying that Oregon and Texas A&M have such potent offenses that what could we expect. Well have about show a little heart and make a tackle when the opportunity presents itself.

Let's quickly take a look at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of this past weekend's games.

The Good

1.   Alabama, Kansas State, and Notre Dame can play defense with anybody and then pound on your
          defense until you wear out.

2.   Colin Klein and A J McCarron are the two best QB's in football right now and could make any
          other team better (except maybe Colorado).

3.   Kansas St, Boise St, and SMU are locks against the spread each week simply because they are
          very well coached on the offensive side of the ball and don't play any SEC defenses.

4.   Braxton Miller is the real deal. He won that game versus Penn State almost single handed.

The Bad

1.   The BIG TEN without Ohio State. Michigan State over Wisconsin (which will win the leaders
          division) and Nebraska which beat Michigan (without D. Robinson) was the highlight of the
          day. Northwestern can jump out to a fast start in each game but can't finish. It will not matter
          which team comes out of the league to play in the Rose Bowl we are talking blow out versus
          Oregon.

2.   South Carolina defense is not all that. Clowney is good but containable and the backend just
          does not get it done. Tennessee moved at will on them and even LSU controlled the ball.

3.   Key football matchups with over 200 yards combined in penalties. Take a look at the teams
          that are successful, they don't have more that three to five total penalties per game and they
          are usually the five yard variety.

The Ugly

1.   Teams that have already packed it in for the year. I find it interesting when the starters can
          not make a play but the hungry freshmen and sophomores will fly around the field and
          at least make it look respectable. You can insert your own team here as an example, there
          were several this past weekend.

2.   Now on a more somber note, the ugliest thing I saw in a game was a good person and great
          athlete was seriously injured and could quite possibly have it end his career. I am sure many
          of you will join me in wishing Marcus Lattimore all the best and hope for him to make a
          full recovery. I have been watching football for a long time and that was by far the most
          gruesome injury that I can remember. I realize that this does not compare to a spinal cord
          injury and I don't mean to minimize those in any way what so ever. But I just hope he can
          make back from yesterday unfortunate injury.

Coach Bourque's week 10 picks

We are going to try something a little different this week. Instead of an email sent to Kenny for him to post, I am going to write the post myself.  So if this changes the success rate I have enjoyed so far, then I will revert back to the old fashion way of making my locks of the week. So here goes;

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Locks of the week

1.    Ga. Tech by 7 1/2 over MARYLAND.

Let's face it, when you have to start a fifth string true freshman QB for his first game, that usually   spells disaster. When that 5th string QB is really a middle linebacker, now that is really really bad. Maryland has this problem and then you compound that problem with a very weak run game, I don't see many points coming their way.

2.    UTAH ST. by 26 1/2 over Texas St.

I don't know if an explanation is truly needed here but I will provide one. Texas St has recently moved up to FBS and is working to establish themselves. Utah St is scoring points at will and they are a blistering 7 - 0 ATS.

3.    Penn St. by 3 1/2 over PURDUE

Coach O'Brien is the difference here and I believe that it is worth 3 1/2 points. Penn St is a more disciplined and consistent team than Purdue. Don't let last week Ohio State loss fool you, Braxton Miller is really good. Purdue does not have a Miller on their team.

4.    NO. ILLINOIS by 35 1/2 over Massachusetts

Man that is a lot of points to give a team but U Mass just gave up 49 to Vandy while playing on the road. No. Ill is better than Vandy so look for this one to a solid blow out.

5.    N.C. ST. by 11 1/2 over Virginia

Mike Glennon rank the bell for 42 against UNC last week. Virginia's defense is not a tar heel equivalent and the offense does not score much at all. The wolfpack are fighting for a bowl bid and the Cavs are 0 - 7 ATS this season.

6.    Arkansas St by 4 1/2 over NO. TEXAS ST.

Ark St is leading the Sun Belt and Gus Malzahn has the offense rolling. No Texas is no match for     fine tuned spread passing attack.

7.    FLORIDA by 16 1/2 over Missouri

This point spread kind of scares me but I look for Muschamp to get the gators back on track and take care of the ball this week. Mizzou does not stop the run nor do they protect the QB very well. This plays right into Florida wheel house.

8.    Ole Miss getting 13 1/2 from GEORGIA

Can you say trap game? Ole Miss is playing like they are relevant and I think they will be over looked by the bulldogs. Don't look for the Rebels to win but they will cover.

9.    MIAMI getting 2 1/2 from Virginia Tech

VT is 0 - 4 on the road, Coach Golden has the swagger coming back at the U. This one looks like a winner and getting points.

10.  FRESNO ST. by 33 1/2 over Hawaii

This is the first time I remember Hawaii traveling anywhere. They appear to be a bad road team they leave their defense at home when they travel. Look for a scoring fest early and often from Fresno St.

Other to be considered for almost locks

Troy getting 18 1/2 from TENNESSEE
MINNESOTA getting 9 1/2 from Michigan
Vandy by 7 1/2 over KENTUCKY
TEXAS TECH by 7 1/2 Texas
KANSAS ST by 8 1/2 over Oklahoma St
KENT ST by 21 1/2 over Akron
Florida International by 4 1/2 over SOUTH ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI ST. getting 6 1/2 from Texas A & M
EAST CAROLINA getting 3 1/2 from Houston
Pittsburgh getting 16 1/2 from NOTRE DAME

Coach's Week 9 picks are up!

     Coach has posted his locks of the week.  He's going with a total of 20 picks this week, ranked in groups of 5.  I'm sure we are all looking forward to Saturday.  Good luck everyone.

Coach Bourque Off To A Blazing Start!

     In case you haven't notice, but I think there is a good chance you have, Coach Bourque started off on fire with his college football picks this past weekend.  He went a whopping 14-1 overall on picks against the spread.  The lone loss coming at the hands of Western Kentucky losing in OT to La. Monroe 43-42. Western Kentucky was a 2.5 pt favorite and had previously covered or beat the spread in it's previous 15 consecutive games. Hard to find a team in any sport that can beat the spread that many games in a row.  So unfortunately all good things must come to an end, and it just so happened to be last weekend.

     Week 9 picks should be posted within the next day or two, so be on the look out.  Become a follower of the blog and be the first to get notified of any updates.

Some quick thoughts on the LSU/TAMU game tomorrow

     I just wanted to post a few thoughts on tomorrow's game before I go to sleep. This game should be very exciting in my opinion.  In spite of the 11 am cst kickoff time, I have a feeling the crowd will be raucous.  I feel fairly certain that there will be plenty of Tiger fans crashing the midnight yell practice of the Aggies.  That will could make for an interesting atmosphere before and during the game.  Anyways, LSU will have to make some big plays early to take the home crowd out of it.  In particular, the LSU DE's, Mingo and Montgomery, must maintain containment on Manziel.  On top of that, I think Eric Reid must have a spectacular game like he did against South Carolina in order for LSU to contain the Aggie offense.  I found a great article that sums up the approach to stopping the Aggie offense here.  When LSU is on offense, they will need to establish the run game much like the USC game last week.  Also the receivers need to continue to catch passes and move the chains on third downs.  Mettenberger had a much improved game last week and I would like to see him build on that.

     Two hidden keys that I think will give great insight as to how this game will end up are:  1) if you see Les Miles with a play chart in his hands on the sideline and 2) the play calling on offense of the second series for LSU.  If you see the first item and the second item seems to flow/feed off of the first series then LSU will cruise to a victory over TAMU.  However, if you don't see number 1 then be warry.  And if you don't see number 2 then it will be a long day for the Tigers.

     I have a feeling we will see both of those things listed tomorrow and LSU will rack up another impressive performance stat wise, the scoreboard may not indicate that same. My prediction:

LSU 24  TAMU 17  (late td by TAMU makes it close)

This week's locks are in!

     That's right, Coach Bourque has picked his winners against the spread for week 8 of the college football season.  This is his first installment so his official record will start at 0-0, but some can already attest to the many winners he has picked throughout the season so far. You can see his selections on his page by clicking the tab at the top of this web page, or click here.  Good luck to everyone on their picks.

We Have A New Contributor....

     A new member to the KB3 sports blog;  my dad Steve.  We will be making college football picks against the spread weekly.  These picks will be listed under the tab "Coach Bourque's Locks Of The Week."  We will try to get these picks in early enough in the week so our viewers can potentially play the movement in Vegas spreads to their advantage. I will also try to keep up with his overall record on picks along with a running tally of units wagered. Look for this new feature early next week, around Monday or Tuesday.

A few quick thoughts on the upcoming USC @ LSU game

     First off I have to say I am a little worried about this game.  I do like the fact that it's a home game for LSU and on top of that it's a night game. I do like the fact that USC rarely puts together consecutive great performances; USC has only won once in Death Valley at night (1984); also like the fact that Les Miles has only lost back to back games once in his entire career. However, I am still very concerned about the health and pass blocking ability of LSU's offensive line/RB picking up blitzes. Combine that with a very good Defensive line of USC and that begins to spell trouble in my mind. And once you add on a mobile QB that USC has; I think that could spell disaster late in the game for LSU.  Much like the Florida game, the ability to run the ball (both designed runs with RB and QB and the ability to scramble with the QB) and run it well will wear down the LSU front 7 especially late in the game.

     The more I think about it the more I start to believe that points will certainly come at a premium in this game.  I'm thinking a score somewhere around 17-14 type points. Maybe lower.  Not sure what the Vegas over/under is for this game but I would advise to put the money on the under.

     For LSU to be able to win this game, I feel that the field position battle will be the biggest and most important throughout the game.  Brad Wing must out punt the USC punter. To help in this battle, the LSU offense must get at least one first down at least every other possession in order to maintain good field position.  Of course LSU must take full advantage of good field position and score TD's when deep in the red zone, but in the end multiple FG's may win this game.

     In order to do all of that, LSU will need to have very manageable third downs and distances.  Somewhere around 3rd and 3 or less. I think with this down and distance it isn't quite necessary to pass.  With an established running game, this can open up to many different looks and plays that should help keep the defense on their heels.

     To be able to set up a 3rd and 3 yards or shorter, LSU must gain at least 7 yards on the first two downs combined.  There are many different ways to accomplish this, however I feel that utilizing screens, TE's down the seam, bubble screens to WR's, draw plays, and misdirections will greatly help in opening up the power run game between the tackles.  And of course that leads to the very most important aspect and that is establishing a power run game between the tackles.  Every available RB will need to rotate in to accomplish all of this.

    When it comes to LSU on defense, I'm not nearly as concerned. If the offense can execute their game plan then the defense will have time to rest between possessions. With a rested defense, keeping contain on Lattimore and Shaw is possible.  And besides, John Chavis is about as consistent and reliable of a defensive coordinator as you can get.   I feel very comfortable saying he finds a way to hold USC to under 20 points definitely and probably under 17.

     So there you have it folks.  The players that will win this game for LSU are Brad Wing and whichever defensive player can create a turnover deep in USC territory.  No pressure guys, time to let loose and have fun.  Just win baby!

It's been too long

     Way too long since I've posted last. In fact the college football landscape has changed drastically since then. Florida State was once considered a strong team to de-throne the mighty SEC. However NC State had other things in mind. USC was certainly pre-season champs until they got knocked off by Stanford. Of course Stanford was defeated by Washington and Washington was crushed by LSU. Nothing new to see here, just the same ole SEC > Pac12 segment of college football.
     Well, onto more recent events.  LSU host South Carolina this weekend in Death Valley. This should be a great match up of two great defenses. Scoring will most likely come at a premium. I like many others feel that it might be time for Coach Les Miles to let loose a little with the offensive play calling. It certainly seems that the routes receivers run are very vanilla (i.e. not many crossing routes, slants, posts, etc) and on top of everything else they rarely try to get the ball in the hands of Russell Shepard. I personally we have Shepard on the field about 90% of the offensive plays and he would be in motion on roughly 75% of those plays. I would make the defense adjust to his presence on the field. And I would like to include more jet sweeps to him just to get him the ball out of the backfield.
     I said it last week and I'll say it again this week: This will be a close ball game and LSU will have to do whatever it can to pull out the victory. I feel a fake fg/punt or go for it on fourth down type game coming up. As heart-stopping as those moments can be during the game, they sure to add tons of excitement. Regardless, I can't wait for kickoff. Geaux Tigers!!!

Worth Reading

     I would like to share a couple articles on LSU Football and one on college football in general, written by Kris Brauner on his blog, Saturday Night Slant.

     This article is about a few things he would like to change in the sport of college football.  It is entirely about recruiting and scholarships, and a great read if you're interested in that area.  He brings up some very good points on oversigning and a way to possibly eliminate it altogether.

     The next two articles take a look at future QB's and the current QB's on the roster.  He gives a very good breakdown of the current qb situation and what LSU fans have to look forward to in the coming season.

     All I know is, I am ready for football season to begin already!

The College Baseball Season Has Finally Started.

It's finally here; something to take the minds of the Tiger fans off of that horrible showing in the BCS National Championship game.  The LSU Tigers started the opening weekend on fire; winning all three games by considerable margins.  Granted, their competition wasn't exactly stellar.  It was still a great way to start the season.  In the process they moved from #8 to #7  in the rankings.  Looking forward to many more weekends like the one they just had. GEAUX TIGERS!!!

When it rains, it pours.

It sure has been a rough week for the LSU nation.
     First off, there was the debacle in New Orleans that some people called the BCS National Championship game. That was quite possibly the worst LSU bowl game ever and definitely the worst in recent memory, at least offensively it was.  The defense did everything they could to keep the team in the game. The offense however was very frustrating to watch to say the least.  Many would have liked to seen Jarrett Lee get a few snaps in the ball game, but it's hard to say he would have made much of a difference in the outcome of the final score.  Alabama's defensive line was beating the offensive line of LSU most of the night, making it extremely difficult for the running game to get going.  In my opinion, without an established running game the passing game didn't stand much of a chance with either Jefferson or Lee at the QB position. Well that's about as much of that game I can relive for now.  Maybe I'll discuss it more at a later date.
     Secondly, the Saints lost their playoff game to the San Francisco 49ers.  I wasn't really expecting them to win the Super Bowl, but it certainly would have been nice to get at least 1 playoff win.
     And of course last but not least, highly recruited QB Gunner Kiel backed out of his commitment to LSU and instead will be attending Notre Dame.  He is from Indiana and stated that he would like to attend college closer to home. It sure would have been nice to get the #1 QB recruit in the nation on the team but you can't really fault the kid for making a decision like that.
     All in all it has certainly been a rough 7-10 days but with plenty of returning talent on the 2012 football roster there are many reasons to look forward to next year.  Should be a great season again.